城市院前急救系统混合建模及仿真研究  

Study on Hybrid Modeling and Simulation of Urban Pre-hospital Emergency System

作　　者：陆文杰 何润娴 杨鹏 武佳丽 刘旭 LU Wenjie;HE Runxian;YANG Peng;WU Jiali;LIU Xu(University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学健康科学与工程学院,上海市200093 [2]海军军医大学卫生勤务学系,上海市200433 [3]天津理工大学计算机科学与工程学院,天津市300384

出　　处：《中国卫生信息管理杂志》2024年第1期116-122,共7页Chinese Journal of Health Informatics and Management

基　　金：上海市加强公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划“城市数字化转型背景下基于需求预测的院前急救资源优化配置”(GWVI-11.2-XD39);国家自然科学基金面上项目“面向大规模伤亡事件的城市医疗服务系统韧性评估、建模与优化策略研究”(71774166);国防科技项目基础加强计划“大规模伤亡事件医疗后送模型构建与系统研发”(2019-JCJQ-JJ-065)。

摘　　要：目的对院前急救中的关键连续因素进行定量分析,模拟医疗资源的运用调度流程,并反映大规模伤亡事件下伤病员流及院前急救的复杂适应性机制。方法运用Anylogic软件构建基于多智能体仿真(ABMS)、系统动力学(SD)和离散事件仿真(DES)的混合建模仿真系统。结果建立了基于SD的伤病员流结构模型、基于ABMS的院前急救资源配置模型、基于DES-SD的院前急救排队模型。通过仿真发现,相关耗时数据与日常接送伤员历史数据两者的平均耗时差异无统计学意义。结论基于混合建模方法的城市院前急救系统,可以用于应急医学救援方案策略的优化,能够促进灾害应急医学救援决策科学性与精确性的提升。Objective To quantitatively analyze the key continuous factors in pre-hospital first aid,simulate the allocation and dispatching process of medical resources,and reflect the complex adaptive mechanism of injured patients and pre-hospital first aid in large-scale casualty events.Methods The Anylogic software was used to build a mixed modeling and simulation system based on agent-based modeling and simulation(ABMS),system dynamics(SD),and discrete event simulation(DES).Results A structural model of injured patients flow based on SD,a pre-hospital emergency resource allocation model based on ABMS,and a pre-hospital first aid queuing model based on DES-SD were established.Through simulation,it was found that there was no significant difference in the average time-consuming between the relevant time-consuming data and the historical data of daily injured patients.Conclusion The urban pre-hospital emergency system based on the mixed modeling method can be used to optimize emergency medical rescue plans and strategies,and can promote the scientific and precise improvement of disaster emergency medical rescue decision-making.

关 键 词：混合建模 ABMS SD ANYLOGIC 院前急救 

分 类 号：R-058[医药卫生] R319