“安倍外交”的历史坐标与“后安倍时代”东亚地缘政治变局的可能  

The Historical Position of"Abe Diplomacy"and the Possible Geopolitical Changes in East Asia in the"Post-Abe Era"

作　　者：刘建平[1] Liu Jianping

机构地区：[1]中国传媒大学国际传播研究中心

出　　处：《日本学刊》2023年第6期23-52,168,169,共32页Japanese Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“西方国家主要政党涉华传播话语体系研究”(编号:22&ZD320)。

摘　　要：安倍晋三作为第一位战后出生的日本首相,提出“摆脱战后体制”“恢复日本”“战后外交总决算”等国家战略命题,创造了日本宪政史上的最长执政纪录。他通过拒绝战争责任批评、复活国家战争职能两条阵线确认“终结战后”并摆脱“和平宪法”原则,通过巩固日美同盟、推进日俄和平条约谈判、处理日韩历史问题来威慑、牵制和孤立中国,并把“价值观外交”作为建构广泛联盟、制定新时代规则以遏制中国的地缘战略,谋求占有钓鱼岛。在“联俄制华”外交被打断后,安倍称病辞职但很快登上日美台战略论坛,菅义伟内阁则确认日美一致干涉台湾问题。安倍遇刺身亡后,岸田文雄首相誓言继承遗志,以“中国威胁”为最大挑战而实现了拥有“反击能力”的安全保障政策转变。对此,日本有权威人士认为政府是以干涉台湾问题交换美国防卫钓鱼岛。总之,以“摆脱战后”为历史坐标的“安倍外交”打破东亚所谓“正常化”的协调型地缘政治结构而激发了再冲突化的“新冷战”,“后安倍时代”的“台湾新干涉主义”可能摧毁中日关系“重回正轨”的前景。As the first Japanese Prime Minister born after the war,Abe Shinzo set the record for the longest reign in Japan's constitutional history by proposing national strategic propositions such as"Getting Rid of the Post-war system","Restoring Japan"and"Post-war Diplomatic Settlement".He dismissed criticism regarding war responsibility,revived the dual fronts of the national war function to signify the conclusion of the post-war era,and departed from the principles of the"peace constitution".Employing a strategy of deterring,restraining and isolating China,he strengthened the Japan-U.S.alliance,advanced negotiations for the Japan-Russia peace treaty,addressed historical issues with Japan and South Korea,and leveraged."values diplomacy"to craft a geopolitical strategy for establishing a comprehensive alliance and formulating rules for the new era aimed at containing China.Ultimately,the objective was to seek possession of the Diaoyu Islands.As the footsteps of"countering Russia to contain China"were disrupted,Abe resigned due to health reasons but quickly participated in the Japan-U.S.-Taiwan,China"Strategic Forum".The Suga Cabinet then confirmed a joint Japan-U.S.intervention in the Taiwan question.After Abe's assassination,Prime Minister Kishida vowed to inherit his legacy,achieving a shift in security policy towards possessing attack capabilities,considering the"China's threat"as the greatest challenge.In response,Japan has assessed the possibility of"exchanging interference in Taiwan,China for U.S.defense of the Diaoyu Islands".In summary,Abe's diplomacy,anchored,in the historical reference of"breaking free from the post-war era",shattered the coordinated geopolitical structure of East Asia,sparking a reconflictualized"new Cold War".The"new interference doctrine"regarding Taiwan,China in the post-Abe era may jeopardize the prospect of restoring ChinaJapan relations to a"normal track".

关 键 词：安倍外交 地缘战略 中日关系 日美同盟 台湾问题 

分 类 号：D831.3[政治法律—政治学] K901.4[政治法律—外交学]