基于模糊推理的油气储罐安全生产风险预警技术研究  

Research on Risk Warning Technology of Oil and Gas Storage Tank Safety Production Based on Fuzzy Inference

作　　者：陈雅丽 Chen Yali(SINOPEC Research Institute of Safety Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Shandong,Qingdao,266104)

机构地区：[1]中石化安全工程研究院有限公司,山东青岛266104

出　　处：《安全、健康和环境》2024年第2期12-16,30,共6页Safety Health & Environment

摘　　要：针对油气储罐安全生产风险高及量化表征难、预警及时性难以保证、历史数据难以得到有效利用的问题,构建了一种基于改进EWMA的关键运行参数波动率和历史报警率计算方法,提出了基于模糊推理方法的油气储罐安全生产风险预警技术,有效提升了油气储罐安全风险预警的科学性、及时性和准确性。实验表明,提出的油气储罐安全生产风险预警技术能够将各关键运行参数实时监测数据及历史数据进行融合利用,并对风险进行合理量化及超前预警。In view of the difficulties such as quantification of security risks reasonably,guaranteeing timeliness of risk warning,utilizing historical data effectively for oil and gas storage tanks,a key parameter alarm rate and volatility calculation method based on improved EWMA was constructed,a risk warning technology based on fuzzy inference for oil and gas storage tank safety production was proposed,effectively improving the scientificity,timeliness,and accuracy of oil and gas storage tank safety risk warning.The experimental results showed that the proposed risk warning technology of oil and gas storage tank safety production can integrate real-time monitoring data and historical data of various key parameters,and reasonably quantify risks and provide graded warnings for risks.

关 键 词：油气储罐 模糊推理 波动率 报警率 风险预警 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]