长江经济带生态安全动态评价  

A Dynamic Evaluation of Ecological Security in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

作　　者：李双双[1] 姚德利[1] LI Shuang-shuang;YAO De-li(School of Economics and Management,Anhui University of Science&Technology,Huainan,Anhui 232001,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学经济与管理学院,安徽淮南232001

出　　处：《河北北方学院学报（社会科学版）》2023年第6期22-28,共7页Journal of Hebei North University：Social Science Edition

基　　金：安徽省高校人文社会科学项目(SK2019A0096);安徽省学校共青团研究中心项目(xxty20200409)。

摘　　要：基于DPSIR模型综合评价指标体系的构建,利用熵权法和正态云模型对长江经济带生态安全状态进行动态评价,并通过固定效应回归模型识别生态安全综合发展水平的主要影响因素。结果表明:2010—2018年长江经济带生态安全状态整体呈轻微下滑趋势,内部生态安全状态发展存在差异,体现为“东部领先,中西为辅”的发展态势;准则层中驱动力和响应子系统提升速度较快,压力和影响子系统水平较低,状态子系统出现下滑;第三产业增加值是影响区域生态安全综合水平的关键因素,有必要及时进行产业结构调整。The normal cloud model is introduced into the ecological security assessment of the Yangtze River Economic Belt to provide a theoretical basis for the improvement of the regional ecological security status.Based on the construction of a comprehensive evaluation index system with the DPSIR model,by the entropy method and the normal cloud model,a dynamic evaluation is made of the ecological security status of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2018,and the main influencing factors of the comprehensive development level of the ecological security are identified with the fixed effects regression model.The results show that there is a slight decline in the overall ecological security status of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2018,which shows a relatively dangerous state of level II,there are differences in the development of internal ecological security status,showing a development trend of“eastern regions leading and central and western regions supplementing”,the driving force and response sub-systems in the criterion level have increased rapidly while the pressure and influence sub-system levels are low,and the state sub-system has declined,and the added value of the tertiary industry is a key factor affecting the comprehensive level of regional ecological security.Timely adjustment of industrial structure has become necessary.

关 键 词：长江经济带 DPSIR 正态云 影响因素 动态评价 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]