基于BP神经网络的乒乓球优秀女子单打比赛结果预测模型构建及仿真应用  

Construction and Simulation Application of Prediction Model for Table Tennis Excellent Women's Singles Match Results Based on BP Neural Network

作　　者：修霆喆 于红妍[1] 黄雯妍 XIU Ting-zhe;YU Hong-yan;HUANG Wen-yan

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学,上海200240

出　　处：《哈尔滨体育学院学报》2024年第2期89-96,共8页Journal of Harbin Sport University

基　　金：2018年国家社科基金项目(编号:18BTY082)。

摘　　要：为构建优秀女子运动员技战术表现与比赛获胜的理论模型,合理安排技战术训练及比赛策略提供参考借鉴。运用录像观察法、数理统计法及BP神经网络构建乒乓球优秀女子单打比赛结果预测模型。在此基础上,利用预测模型仿真分析新型塑料球时代优秀女子乒乓球运动员在不同水平技战术组合下的比赛获胜模式。本文构建的预测模型R为0.978,R~2为0.956,平均绝对误差为0.0085,模型精度达到98.4%;仿真分析1 024种技战术段组合结果可知,568种组合的预测结果为获胜,456种组合的预测结果为失败。结论:基于BP神经网络构建的乒乓球优秀女子单打比赛结果预测模型拟合效果佳,个案实证预测效果较好,具有较高的预测性能;新型塑料球时代优秀女子运动员在单打比赛中,各技战术段之间的补偿效应因技战术段和等级而有所不同,评估总分17分为女子单打比赛胜负的分界点,不同水平技战术段组合的比赛评估总分大于17分即可取得比赛胜利,低于17分则会落败。In order to construct a theoretical model of the technical and tactical performance and competition victory of outstanding female athletes,and reasonably arrange technical and tactical training and competition strategies,it provides reference for reference.Video observation method,mathematical statistics method and BP neural network were used to construct a prediction model for the results of excellent women's singles matches in table tennis.On this basis,the prediction model is used to simulate and analyze the competition winning mode of outstanding female table tennis players in the new plastic ball era under different levels of technical and tactical combinations.The prediction model R is 0.978,R~2 is 0.956,the average absolute error is 0.008 5,and the model accuracy reaches 98.4%.Simulation analysis of 1 024 technical and tactical segment combination results show that the prediction result of 568 combinations is winning,and the prediction result of 456 combinations is failure.Conclusions:The prediction model of table tennis excellent women's singles match results constructed based on BP neural network has good fitting effect,good case empirical prediction effect,and high prediction performance;In singles competitions of outstanding female athletes in the new plastic ball era,the compensation effect between each technical and tactical segment varies according to the technical and tactical segment and level,and the total evaluation score of 17 points is the cut-off point of the women's singles match,and the total evaluation score of the combination of different levels of technical and tactical segments is greater than 17 points to win the match,and if it is lower than 17 points,it will lose.

关 键 词：乒乓球 女子单打 BP神经网络 预测模型 

分 类 号：G808[文化科学—体育训练]