2019—2021年菏泽市大气颗粒物与医院内科日门诊量的时间序列分析  

Time series analysis on atmospheric particulate matter and daily outpatient visits of internal medicine in Heze from 2019-2021

作　　者：田欢 李大磊[1] 刘洪敏[2] 王颖[1] 刘昭璐 TIAN Huan;LI Dalei;LIU Hongmin;WANG Ying;LIU Zhaolu(Division of Environmental Health Monitoring and Assessment Section,Heze Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Heze Shandong,274000,China;Central office,Heze Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Heze Shandong,274000,China;Health Management Institute,Shandong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jinan Shandong,250000,China)

机构地区：[1]菏泽市疾病预防控制中心环境卫生监测评价科,山东菏泽274000 [2]菏泽市疾病预防控制中心中心办公室,山东菏泽274000 [3]山东省疾病预防控制中心健康管理所,山东济南250000

出　　处：《职业与健康》2024年第1期66-70,共5页Occupation and Health

摘　　要：目的 了解菏泽市大气颗粒物暴露对医院内科日门诊量的影响,为有效开展空气污染的健康风险评估和采取有效干预措施、改善人群健康提供参考依据。方法 收集2019—2021年菏泽市4家综合性医院的日门诊资料,同时收集逐日大气污染物的数据及气象资料。采用时间序列Poisson分布的广义相加模型来研究大气颗粒物与菏泽市医院内科日门诊总量、呼吸系统疾病日门诊量、循环系统疾病日门诊量的关系,并分析引入其他污染物后,大气颗粒物浓度对此三者门诊量的影响。结果 菏泽市大气污染物浓度与4家综合性医院内科日门诊量存在相关性。细颗粒物(particulate matter 2.5,PM_(2.5))每升高10μg/m^(3)医院内科日门诊总量、呼吸系统疾病日门诊量、循环系统疾病日门诊量效应值分别在Lag09、Lag010、Lag0天时效应最强,ER(95%CI)分别为1.05%(0.44%~1.66%)、2.15%(1.48%~2.83%)、0.68%(0.33%~1.02%)。可吸入颗粒物(particulate matter 10,PM_(10))每升高10μg/m^(3)对医院内科日门总量、呼吸系统日门诊量、循环系统日门诊量分别在Lag02、Lag09、Lag01天时效应最强,ER(95%CI)分别为0.21%(0.05%~0.38%)、0.80%(0.48%~1.12%)、0.21%(0.04%~0.37%)。结论 菏泽市PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)浓度升高可能会增加医院内科日门诊量,并且有一定的滞后性。Objective To investigate the effect of atmospheric particulate matter exposure on daily outpatient visits of internal medicine in Heze City,aiming to provide scientific basis for effective health risk assessment of air pollution and effective intervention measures to improve population health.Methods The daily outpatient data from 2019 to 2021 were collected,and daily air pollutant data and meteorological data were also collected.The generalized additive model with time-series Poisson distribution was used to investigate the relationship between atmospheric particulate matter and the daily outpatient volume of internal medicine,the daily outpatient volume of respiratory system diseases,and the daily outpatient volume of circulatory system diseases in this city.The influence of atmospheric particulate matter concentration on the outpatient volume of these three diseases after the introduction of other pollutants was analyzed.Results There was a correlation between the concentration of air pollutants and the daily outpatient volume of internal medicine in Heze City.For every 10μg/m^(3) increase in PM_(2.5),the effect value of daily outpatient volume of internal medicine,daily outpatient volume of respiratory diseases and daily outpatient volume of circulatory system diseases reached the strongest effect at Lag09,Lag010,Lag0 days,respectively,with ER (95%CI) of 1.05%(0.44%-1.66%),2.15%(1.48%-2.83%),0.68%(0.33%-1.02%).Every 10μg/m^(3) increase in PM_(10)had the strongest effect on the total volume of internal medicine,the daily outpatient volume of respiratory system and the daily outpatient volume of circulatory system at Lag02,Lag09 and Lag01 days,respectively,with ER(95%CI) of 0.21%(0.05%-0.38%),0.80%(0.48%-1.12%) and0.21%(0.04%-0.37%).Conclusion The increase of PM_(2.5)and PM_(10)concentration in Heze City may increase the number of internal medicine outpatient visits,and there is a certain hysteresis.

关 键 词：大气颗粒物 呼吸系统疾病 循环系统疾病 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：R181.34[医药卫生—流行病学]