黄南州“4·23”暴雪天气过程数值预报产品检验  

Testing of Numerical Forecast Products for"4·23"Blizzard Weather Process in Huangnan Region

作　　者：彭英超 宋仙芳 郭安欣 PENG Yingchao;SONG Xianfang;GUO Anxin(Meteorological Bureau of Huangnan Tibetan Autononmous Prefecture,Tongren 811399,China)

机构地区：[1]黄南藏族自治州气象局,青海同仁811399

出　　处：《河南科技》2024年第1期104-108,共5页Henan Science and Technology

摘　　要：【目的】对2022年4月23日出现的暴雪天气进行数值模式检验分析,检验各种数值预报产品对强降雪的预报能力,从而提高本地暴雪预报准确率。【方法】选取此次暴雪天气过程(四个国家站及区域自动站24 h累计降雪量≥10 mm),采用天气学分析、对比分析法,利用EC-thin,CMA-3KM和CMA-GFS三种模式与暴雪个例实况进行检验对比评估。【结果】(1)环流形势场对比CMA-GFS模式对于高原槽预报较EC稳定且准确,基本与实况吻合,而EC越靠近临近时次预报更为准确;从槽线移速来看,两家模式均预报槽线移速比实况快。(2)24小时降水预报检验,EC模式对落区、强度的把握明显优于CMA-GFS模式,且临近时次预报效果最佳。(3)一般性降水准确率预报CMA-3KM参考性最好,且最稳定,准确均在70%以上;三种模式的暴雪的准确率并不稳定,夜间出现的暴雪预报效果08时次优于20时次。【结论】CMA-3KM预报降水效果较好,但稳定性不高,EC模式对降水的落区、强度的把握优于CMA_GFS模式,且临近时次预报效果最佳。[Purposes]In this paper,through the numerical model test analysis of the blizzard weather on April 23,2022,the forecast ability of various numerical forecast products for blizzard is tested by comparison,so as to achieve the purpose of improving the accuracy of local blizzard forecast.[Methods]This blizzard weather process(cumulative snowfall≥10 mm in 24h at four national stations and regional automatic stations)was selected.The synoptic analysis and comparative analysis were used,and three models of EC-thin,CMA-3KM and CMA-GFS were used to test and evaluate the blizzard case.[Findings]①Compared with the situation field,CMA-GFS model is more stable and accurate than EC in predicting the plateau trough,which is basically consistent with the reality,and the closer the EC is,the more accurate the sub-forecast is.From the point of view of the trough moving speed,both models predict that the trough moving speed is faster than the real one.②The 24-hour precipitation forecast test showed that EC model was significantly better than CMA-GFS model in grasping the fall area and intensity,and the prediction effect was the best near the time.③The general precipitation accuracy forecast CMA-3KM,the most stable method,has the best reference,and its accuracy is above 70%;the accuracy of the three models of blizzard is not stable,and the forecast effect of the nighttime blizzard at 08:00 is better than that at 20:00.[Conclusions]CMA-3KM has a better precipitation forecast effect,but the stability is not high.EC model is better than CMA_GFS model in grasping the fall area and intensity of precipitation,and the closer time approaches,the better forecast effect it has.

关 键 词：暴雪天气 检验 CMA-3KM ECMWF模式 CMA-GFS模式 

分 类 号：P458.121[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]