RCEP关税削减的动态影响分析  

Dynamic Impact Analysis of RCEP Tariff Reduction

作　　者：娄峰[1] 段梦 LOU Feng;DUAN Meng(Institute of Quantitative&Technical Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2024年第3期90-103,共14页China Business and Market

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“财政货币政策对居民收入分配的作用机理与效应研究”(23AJY021);中国社会科学院青启计划“财政政策对居民收入分配差距的影响研究”(2024QQJH127);“中国社会科学院经济大数据与政策评估实验室”(2024SYZH004)。

摘　　要：量化评估RCEP关税削减对域内成员国和域外主要经济体的动态影响,对深化经贸合作和巩固建设全面战略伙伴关系具有重要意义。构建动态GTAP模型,模拟分析RCEP关税削减对域内成员国和域外主要经济体宏观经济的影响。研究发现,RCEP实施对中国、日本、韩国和澳大利亚经济增长具有正效应,特别是对韩国经济增长的拉动作用最强,对新西兰以及越南等东盟国家经济增长产生了负效应;RCEP实施后,中国、日本、韩国和澳大利亚投资水平有所提升,东盟国家的投资水平出现不同程度的下降。除中国、日本和韩国外,其他国家和地区的政府消费出现不同程度的减少,同时,中国、日本、韩国和澳大利亚等国的私人消费也有所增加。此外,从各国贸易变化情况来看,中国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚等国出现贸易逆差,但贸易逆差逐渐减小,东盟国家基本出现贸易顺差;中国、日本、韩国和澳大利亚等工业基础较好、经济发展水平较高的国家获得的红利较多,社会福利有所提高,新西兰社会福利经历“增加—减少—增加”的过程,东盟国家出口商品以农产品、矿产品等初级产品为主,获得的经济效益有限,甚至对经济增长产生负效应,导致社会福利水平降低。因此,应不断提升国家间商贸流通便利化水平,打造经贸合作新优势;重构区域内部产业链价值链,实现资源和商品的高效流动;推进产业转型升级,加强产业链供应链融合。Quantitative assessment of the dynamic impact of RCEP tariff reduction on regional member states and major economies outside the region is of great significance to deepening economic and trade cooperation and consolidating the building of comprehensive strategic partnerships.The authors build a dynamic GTAP model to simulate and analyze the macroeconomic impact of RCEP tariff reduction on intra-regional member countries and major economies outside the region.It is found that the RCEP's entry into force has a positive effect on the economic growth of China,Japan,South Korea and Australia,especially the strongest driving effect on the economic growth of South Korea,and has a negative effect on the economic growth of New Zealand,Vietnam and other ASEAN countries;and after the RCEP came into effect,investment levels in China,Japan,South Korea and Australia increased,while investment levels in ASEAN countries declined to varying degrees.With the exception of China,Japan and South Korea,government consumption has declined to varying degrees in other countries and regions,while private consumption has also increased in China,Japan,South Korea and Australia.In addition,from the perspective of changes in the terms of trade balance of countries,China,Japan,South Korea,Australia and other countries are in trade deficit,but the trade deficit is gradually decreasing,and ASEAN countries are basically in trade surplus;China,Japan,South Korea,Australia and other countries with a better industrial base and higher level of economic development have gained more dividends and improved social welfare,while New Zealand's social welfare has experienced a process of"increase-decrease-increase";and other ASEAN countries mainly export primary products such as agricultural products and mineral products,and have gained limited economic benefits,which even has a negative effect on economic growth,resulting in a lower level of social welfare.Therefore,we should continue to improve the facilitation of trade flows between countries and create n

关 键 词：RCEP 关税削减 动态GTAP模型 宏观经济 

分 类 号：F279.33[经济管理—企业管理]