贸易战下中美水产品贸易政策调整及趋势预测  

Trade policy adjustment and trend forecast of Sino U.S.aquatic products trade under the trade war

作　　者：贺蕾 甄小榆 吕鹏 HE Lei;ZHEN Xiaoyu;LV Peng(College of Economics and Management,Shanxi University of Science and Technology,Shanxi Xian 710021,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西科技大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710021

出　　处：《中国渔业经济》2024年第1期91-98,共8页Chinese Fisheries Economics

基　　金：陕西省教育厅智库内涵建设项目“涉陕重大网路舆情演化规律研究”(20JT007)资助。

摘　　要：中美贸易战以来,美国已实施多项水产业促进措施,以减轻渔业和渔民的收入损失,其中《水产品贸易援助项目》对水产品出口进行直接援助补贴。中美互相加征关税背景下,美国提高或降低补贴标准将对中美水产品贸易产生哪些影响?本文设置了三种不同的贸易政策情景,运用GTAP模型剖析不同情景下中美水产品贸易变动趋势。研究结果显示:加征关税会对中美水产品产量影响较小;对中美水产品贸易产生抑制作用,并给双方的社会福利带来显著的负面影响,且美国的社会福利下降程度高于中国。加征关税情景下,美国会增加对其他市场的水产品出口,贸易转移效应明显;而中国水产品出口保持贸易顺差态势。如果美国以高标准补贴水产品出口,将提升美国水产品的出口竞争力,而且在国际市场上美国水产品将对中国水产品产生替代影响。Since the trade friction between China and the United States,the U.S.has implemented lots of aquaculture promotion measures,including Seafood Trade Relief Program,which provides direct aid subsidies to export aquatic products,in order to mitigate the impact of the increase in tariff on fisheries and fishermen's income.This paper sets up three different trade policy schemes,and analyzes the characteristics and trends of trade changes in aquatic products under trade friction using the GTAP model.The conclusions show that the increase in tariff has seriously negative impact on Chinese and American social welfare,the American social welfare decline more than China.China's aquatic products exports will still maintain trade surplus,and the increase in tariffs will have little impact on the production of aquatic products in China and the United States.The United States will increase the export of aquatic products to other major export markets,and the effect of trade transfer is obvious,while China's export of aquatic products to other major export markets will reduce.If the United States highly subsidizes the export of aquatic products,it will greatly enhance the export competitiveness of aquatic products,and the American aquatic products will substitute Chinese aquatic products in the international market.

关 键 词：加征关税 出口补贴 水产品 GTAP模型 

分 类 号：F326.406[经济管理—产业经济]