粮食补贴政策的运行机制与改革逻辑——基于不确定性状态依存方法的解释  

Operating Mechanism and Reform Logic on the Grain Subsidy Policy--An Explanation Based on the State Contingent Method for Uncertainty

作　　者：钱煜昊 钟钰[2] 钱龙[1] QIAN Yuhao;ZHONG Yu;QIAN Long(Institute of Food and Strategic Reserves,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210003;Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学粮食和物资学院,南京210003 [2]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第2期24-34,共11页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(72303089);江苏省社会科学基金青年项目(23EYC020)。

摘　　要：从种粮主体视角出发,引入劳动市场收入跨度概念,基于空间向量和不确定性状态依存方法构建了粮食补贴政策运行机制与改革逻辑的理论分析框架。基于该理论框架发现:(1)粮食补贴政策的核心作用之一是为粮食产业吸引较高技能禀赋的种粮者;(2)不同类型粮食补贴都会被当成收入性补贴,其产生的收入效应会起到扩大粮食种植面积和促进粮食科技进步的作用。因此应从政策空间、政策目标和政策弹性3个维度改革完善我国粮食补贴政策:一是进一步聚焦政策目标,提高技能型经营主体种粮意愿;二是充分发挥政策乘数效应,补贴聚焦产业链中后端;三是着力优化政策响应机制,抓住信息技术革命契机。The research on the reform of the grain subsidy policy is a hot topic in the academic community,but the research direction has constantly lacked theoretical support.From the perspective of grain farmers,this paper introduces the concept of labor market income span.Based on the space vector and the state contingent method for uncertainty,it attempts to create a theory for analyzing the operation mechanism and reform logic in the grain subsidy policy.Anchored in this theoretical framework,the paper finds that:(1)One of the core role of the food subsidy policy is attracting farmers with high skills for the food industry.(2)Different food subsidies will all be regarded as income subsidies by farmers,and the income effect will positively affect the food industry in terms of expanding grain planting areas and promoting progress in food technology.Based on the above research findings,the paper concludes that China’s food subsidy policy should be reformed from three dimensions:policy objectives,policy space and policy flexibility.First,we should further focus on policy objectives and improve the intention of skilled farmers to grow grain.Second,we should fully exert the policy multiplier effect and make subsidies concentrate on the middle and back ends of the industrial chain.Third,we should give priority to optimizing the policy response mechanism and seizing the opportunity of the IT revolution.

关 键 词：粮食补贴 改革逻辑 不确定性状态依存方法 空间向量 

分 类 号：F322[经济管理—产业经济]