唐山地区无偿献血人数及报废血例数时间序列分析  

Time series analysis of the numbers of unpaid blood donors and discarded blood cases in the Tangshan Area

作　　者：任国利 许弘佳 商秀丽[2] 赵俊鹏[2] REN Guoli;XU Hongjia;SHANG Xiuli;ZHAO Junpeng(Tangshan Central Blood Station,Tangshan,Hebei 063000,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]唐山市中心血站,河北唐山063000 [2]唐山市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《医学动物防制》2024年第2期199-205,共7页Journal of Medical Pest Control

基　　金：2022年度河北省医学科学研究重点课题计划(20240814)。

摘　　要：目的 探索2022年唐山地区无偿献血人数及报废血例数观测值与预测值的差异性,为该地区不同月份及新型冠状病毒感染疫情期间科学备血、用血提供理论依据。方法 收集2007年1月-2021年12月唐山地区各月份献血人数及报废血例数,利用季节性差分自回归滑动平均模型分别预测2022年献血人数及报废血例数,同时探索2022年新型冠状病毒感染疫情再次感染期间该地区献血人数及报废血例数观测值与预测值的差异。结果 2007-2021年献血人数的差分自回归移动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA)(0,1,1)(2,1,2)s模型与观测值拟合效果较好,每年1月和2月存在献血人数谷值,3月、4月和11月存在献血人数峰值。2022年1-6月献血人数观测值与预测值差异有统计学意义(Z=-2.100,P<0.05)。2007-2021年报废血例数的ARIMA(2,0,2)(1,1,1)s模型与观测值拟合效果较好,每年2月存在报废血例数谷值,2022年1-6月报废血例数观测值与预测值差异有统计学意义(Z=-2.201,P<0.05)。结论 需加强唐山地区1月和2月献血人员招募以及新型冠状病毒感染疫情期间各地区的用血调度协调,防止季节性和区域性血荒等现象出现。Objective To explore the difference between the observed values and the predicted value of the number of unpaid blood donors and discarded blood cases in Tangshan Area in 2022,and to provide a theoretical basis for scientific blood preparation and use in different monthly periods and the COVID-19 epidemic period in this area.Methods The numbers of unpaid blood donors and discarded blood cases were collected from January 2007 to December 2021 in Tangshan Area,and the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)(0,1,1)(2,1,2),model was used to predict the numbers of unpaid blood donors and discarded blood cases in 2022.We explored the difference between the observed values and predicted values of the numbers of unpaid blood donors and discarded blood cases in this area during the re-outbreak of COVID-19 in 2022.Results For the number of unpaid blood donors from 2007 to 2021,the ARIMA(0,1,1)(2,1,2),model fitted the observed value well,and there were valley values of blood donors in January and February each year,and peak values in March,April and November each year.There was a statistically significant difference between the observed value and predicted value of the number of blood donors from January to June 2022(Z=-2.100,P<0.05).For the number of discarded blood cases from 2007 to 2021,ARIMA(2,0,2)(1,1,1),model fitted the observed value well.There was a valley value of discarded blood cases in February each year,and there was a statistically significant difference between the observed value and the predicted value of the number of scrapped blood cases from January to June 2022(Z=-2.201,P<0.05).Conclusion It is necessary to strengthen the recruitment of blood donors in January and February in the Tangshan Area and the coordination of blood use in various regions during the COVID-19 epidemic to prevent seasonal and regional blood shortages etcetera.

关 键 词：血荒 季节 时间序列分析 自回归 移动平均 无偿献血 新型冠状病毒感染 

分 类 号：R197.6[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]