收缩城市商品房空置率影响因素分析与动态预测——以鹤岗为例  

Factors Analysis and Dynamic Forecast of the Vacancy Rate of Commercial Housing in Shrinking Cities——Taking Hegang as an Example

作　　者：刘广川 周婷婷 罗福周[2] LIU Guang-chuan;ZHOU Ting-ting;LUO Fu-zhou(School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;School of Management,Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi'an 710005,China)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081 [2]西安建筑科技大学管理学院,陕西西安710055

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2024年第2期239-249,共11页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71974155);陕西省重点研发计划(2023-YBSF-177)。

摘　　要：以鹤岗市为例,构建商品房空置率影响因素指标体系并结合熵值法确定各指标权重,进而应用灰色关联指数测度各指标对商品房空置率影响程度,运用组合GM(1,1)马尔科夫动态预测模型探寻商品房空置率发展规律.结果表明,商品房空置率受经济发展水平、社会保障能力、商品房市场活力多维度综合影响,与文章选取的影响因素呈现较好的关联性,预测数据呈逐年上升趋势.基于此,文章给出抑制以鹤岗市为代表的收缩城市商品房空置率对策建议.Taking Hegang City as an example,this article constructs an index system of infuence factors of commercial housing vacancy rate and combines the entropy method to determine the weight of each index,and then uses the gray correlation index to measure the degree of influence of each index on the vacancy rate of commercial housing,and uses the combined Markov dynamic forecasting model to explore the development law of the vacancy rate of commercial housing.The results show that the vacancy rate of commercial housing is comprehensively affected by the economic development level,social security capacity,and the vitality of the commercial housing market.Commercial housing vacancy rate shows a good correlation with the influence factors selected in the article,and the forecast data is increasing year by year.Based on this,the article proposes countermeasures to curb the vacancy rate of commercial housing in shrinking cities represented by Hegang City.

关 键 词：收缩城市 商品房空置率 灰色关联度 组合模型 动态预测 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]