A Generalized Accelerated Failure Time Model to Predict Restoration Time from Power Outages  

作　　者：Tasnuba Binte Jamal Samiul Hasan 

机构地区：[1]Department of Civil,Environmental,and Construction Engineering,University of Central Florida,Orlando,FL 32816,USA

出　　处：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》2023年第6期995-1010,共16页国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）

基　　金：the U.S.National Science Foundation for the Grant CMMI-1832578 to support the research presented in this article。

摘　　要：Major disasters such as wildfire, tornado, hurricane, tropical storm, and flooding cause disruptions in infrastructure systems such as power and water supply, wastewater management, telecommunication, and transportation facilities. Disruptions in electricity infrastructure have negative impacts on sectors throughout a region, including education, medical services,financial services, and recreation. In this study, we introduced a novel approach to investigate the factors that can be associated with longer restoration time of power service after a hurricane. Considering restoration time as the dependent variable and using a comprehensive set of county-level data, we estimated a generalized accelerated failure time(GAFT) model that accounts for spatial dependence among observations for time to event data. The model fit improved by 12% after considering the effects of spatial correlation in time to event data. Using the GAFT model and Hurricane Irma's impact on Florida as a case study, we examined:(1) differences in electric power outages and restoration rates among different types of power companies—investor-owned power companies, rural and municipal cooperatives;(2) the relationship between the duration of power outage and power system variables;and(3) the relationship between the duration of power outage and socioeconomic attributes. The findings of this study indicate that counties with a higher percentage of customers served by investor-owned electric companies and lower median household income faced power outage for a longer time. This study identified the key factors to predict restoration time of hurricane-induced power outages, allowing disaster management agencies to adopt strategies required for restoration process.

关 键 词：Generalized accelerated failure time model Hurricanes Investor-owned power companies Median income Power outage Restoration time 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]