中国华东地区旅游交通碳排放测度与驱动因素分析  

Measurement and Driving Factor Analysis of Carbon Emissions from Tourism Transportation in East China

作　　者：刘俊豪 刘榆欣 黄蕾[1,2] LIU Junhao;LIU Yuxin;HUANG Lei(State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse,School of Environment,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210033,China;Nanjing University(Suzhou)High-Tech Research Institute,Suzhou 215123,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学环境学院,污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室,江苏南京210033 [2]南京大学(苏州)高新技术研究院,江苏苏州215123

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2024年第3期626-636,共11页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：苏州市科技计划项目-碳达峰碳中和科技支撑重点专项(No.ST202218)。

摘　　要：不同于以往旅游业是绿色环保产业的固有认识,旅游业中交通部分的碳减排也成为实现“双碳”目标的重要组成.基于华东地区六省一市面板数据,提出分时段的不同交通方式碳排放系数,采用“自下而上”替代式系数法准确测度了华东地区各省份的旅游交通碳排放量;构建了包括出行距离和旅游资源禀赋度的驱动因素研究框架,并运用两级LMDI加法分解模型分析了10个驱动因素的影响效应.结果表明:①2001−2021年华东地区的旅游交通碳排放年均增速为2.94%,大致可分为2001−2012年的快速增长阶段、2013−2015年的转型调整阶段、2016−2019年的稳步发展阶段、2020−2021年的剧烈下降阶段.②华东地区旅游交通碳排放总量呈现北高南低的特征,人均旅游交通碳排放量呈中间高、南北低的特征;江苏省为第一大旅游交通碳排放区域,碳排放总量达35978.82×10^(4)t.③旅游规模是首要正向驱动因素,能源效率是首要负向驱动因素;2011年前后10年驱动因素影响效应变化趋势也间接揭示了人民群众的旅游目标从单景点目标转向多元散点的变化趋势.研究显示,华东地区旅游交通碳减排应聚焦在游客出发地与旅游目的地之间以及在旅游目的地期间的全过程,通过结构优化、技术创新和区域协作等方式共同推进节能减排提效.Unlike the previous understanding that tourism is a green and environmentally friendly industry,carbon emission reduction in the transportation sector of the tourism industry has also become one of the important paths to achieve the‘dual carbon’goals.Based on the panel data from six provinces and one city in East China,combined with the first proposed carbon emission coefficients of different transportation modes in different time stages,the‘bottom-up’substitution coefficient method was used to accurately measure the carbon emissions of tourism transportation in various provinces and cities in East China;construct a research framework for driving factors including travel distance and tourism resource endowment,and analyze the impact effects of 10 driving factors using a two-level LMDI additive decomposition model.The results show that:(1)From 2001 to 2021,the average annual growth rate of carbon emissions from tourism transportation in East China was 2.94%,which can be roughly divided into distinct phases,a period of rapid growth(2001-2012),followed by transformation and adjustment(2013-2015),stable development(2016-2019),and a sharp decline(2020-2021).(2)Emissions were higher in the northern regions and lower in the south.Notably,Jiangsu Province emerged as a major contributor,accounting for 359.7882 million tons of emissions.Per capita emissions showed a similar pattern,peaking in central areas and tapering towards the north and south.(3)Tourism scale was the primary positive driving factor,while energy efficiency was the primary negative driving factor.The trend of driving factors influencing the effects of the past ten years in 2011 also indirectly revealed the trend of people's tourism goals shifting from single scenic spots to multiple scattered points.The research shows that carbon emission reduction of tourism transportation in East China should focus on the entire process from the tourist departure points to the destinations,as well as during the stay at the tourism destination.Efforts should be

关 键 词：旅游交通 碳排放 LMDI分解模型 华东地区 驱动因素 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F127[经济管理—世界经济] F592