“低学历”抑或“高学历”:谁带来了更高的违约率  

Low Education or High Education:Which Brings Higher Default Rates?

作　　者：石宝峰[1] 田锦萱 孙梦遥 SHI Baofeng;TIAN Jinxuan;SUN Mengyao

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,杨凌712100 [2]中国人民银行大连市中心支行,大连116001

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2024年第3期4-19,共16页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“‘风险—等级—利率’匹配视角下家庭农场信用评级与贷款定价研究”(编号:72173096);“普惠金融视角下基于违约损失显著判别的农村个体工商户信用评价研究”(编号:71873103);国家自然科学基金重点项目“大数据环境下的微观信用评价理论与方法研究”(编号:71731003);国家社科基金重大项目“接续推进脱贫地区乡村振兴的金融支持研究”(编号:21&ZD115);陕西省社会科学基金“乡村振兴视角下陕西省家庭农场征信体系构建与提升策略研究”(编号:2018D51);西北农林科技大学仲英青年学者项目(编号:Z1010422004)。

摘　　要：欠发达农村地区信贷发展较为落后,原因之一是中低收入农户信贷违约风险较大,而识别信贷违约的影响因素对缓解农户融资约束至关重要。本文利用中和农信4424个农户小额贷款数据,以借款者个人特征受教育程度为关键信号,从还款能力和还款意愿两个途径,探究了学历对中低收入农户信贷违约的影响机理,并进行了稳健性检验和内生性讨论。研究发现,对中低收入农户而言,受教育程度对其信贷违约具有显著激励效应,其影响机制在于虽然增强了农户的还款能力,但却降低了还款意愿,最终提高了信贷违约的可能性。进一步分析发现,当借款者受教育程度达到一定水平时,这种激励效应会更加显著,打破了以往借贷市场高学历借款者有着更低的违约概率而低学历借款者更容易违约的刻板印象。此外,多群组分析表明,受教育程度的影响效果存在差异,农户所处地域为东部、贷款用途为种植型生产时,受教育程度对中低收入农户信贷违约的影响更大。One of the reasons why credit development is more backward in less developed ru-ral areas is the higher risk of credit default among low and middle income farmers,and identifying the factors influencing credit default is crucial to alleviate farmers'financing constraints.This pa-per explores the mechanism of the influence of education on credit default of low and middle in-come farm households by using the data of 4424 small loans to farm households from CFPA Farm Credit,and conducts robustness tests and endogeneity discussions,using borrowers'personal char-acteristics of education level as the key signal,in two ways:ability to repay and willingness to re-pay.It is found that for low and middle income farmers,education has a significant incentive effect on their credit default,and the mechanism of its effect is that while it enhances farmers'repayment ability,it decreases repayment willingness and ultimately increases the likelihood of credit default.Further analysis reveals that this incentive effect becomes more significant when borrowers reach a certain level of education,breaking the stereotype that borrowers with higher ed-ucation have a lower probability of default and borrowers with lower education are more likely to default.In addition,a multi-cluster study shows that the effect of education level varies,with the effect of education level on credit default of low and middle income farmers being greater when the farmers are located in the east and the loan use is plantation-based production.

关 键 词：受教育程度 信贷违约 还款能力 还款意愿 中低收入农户 

分 类 号：F832.43[经济管理—金融学] G521[文化科学—教育学]