基于D-S证据理论改进AHP-熵权的流域洪涝灾害评估研究  

Improved AHP-entropy weight method based on D-S evidence theory for basin flood disaster assessment

作　　者：苑希民[1,2] 高瑞梅 田福昌 侯玮 YUAN Ximin;GAO Ruimei;TIAN Fuchang;HOU Wei(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Intelligent Construction and Operation,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300350,China;School of Civil Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300350,China;School of Mining and Geomatics Engineering,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学水利工程智能建设与运维全国重点实验室,天津300350 [2]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300350 [3]河北工程大学矿业与测绘工程学院,河北邯郸056038

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2024年第1期9-16,共8页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202501);水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022002);国家自然基金委创新团队项目(51621092);科技部重点领域创新团队项目(2014RA4031)。

摘　　要：考虑致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性以及承灾体易损性,选取指标构建小清河流域洪涝灾害风险评估指标体系,提出一种基于D-S证据理论的改进AHP-熵权法计算指标权重,求取洪涝灾害风险指数,运用自然断点分级法确定洪涝灾害风险等级,分析小清河流域洪涝灾害风险空间分布情况。结果表明:小清河流域洪涝灾害风险总体上表现出南低北高的趋势,其中高风险区和较高风险区分别占流域面积的8.7%和14.3%,主要分布在小清河干流以及主要支流两岸。所得评估结果同“利奇马”台风发生期间实际洪灾风险分布情况一致,对比证明基于D-S证据理论的改进AHP-熵权法优于AHP和熵权法,可为小清河流域防洪减灾决策提供依据。Based on the consideration of the risk of disaster factors,the sensitivity of the disaster environment,and the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body,a flood risk assessment index system for the Xiaoqing River Basin was constructed.An improved AHP-entropy weight method based on D-S evidence theory was proposed to calculate the index weight so as to obtain the flood risk index.Then,the natural breakpoint grading method was adopted to determine the flood risk level and the spatial distribution of flood risk in the Xiaoqing River Basin.The results show that the overall risk of flood disasters in the Xiaoqing River Basin showed a trend of low in the south but high in the north,with high risk areas and higher risk areas accounting for 8.7%and 14.3%of the basin area,respectively,which mainly distributed on toth banks of the main stream and the main tributaries of the Xiaoqing River.The evaluation results obtained are consistent with the actual distribution of flood risk during the occurrence of Typhoon Lekima,proving that the improved method is superior to individual AHP and entropy weight method.The research results can provide a technical support for the decision-making of flood control and disaster reduction in the Xiaoqing River Basin.

关 键 词：D-S证据理论 AHP 熵权法 洪涝灾害评估 小清河流域 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]