因天气影响的航空器绕飞管制安全评估及策略分析  

Safety Assessment and Strategy Analysis of Aircraft Fly-aroundControl Due to Weather

作　　者：康瑞[1] 李凌海 牟睿聆 周裕川 KANG Rui;LI Ling-hai;MOU Rui-ling;ZHOU Yu-chuan(College of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan 618307,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民用航空飞行学院空中交通管理学院,广汉618307

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2024年第6期2590-2600,共11页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：四川省科技厅重点研发项目(2021YFG0171,2022YFG0196);中央高校基本科研业务费基金项目(ZJ2021-05)。

摘　　要：为降低航空器在绕飞情况下管制指挥事故的风险,采用事故树分析法(fault tree analysis, FTA)和层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process, AHP)相结合的方式对管制员在进行绕飞管制时发生指挥事故建立综合风险评估模型并制定风险管控措施,以及验证所提管控措施的有效性。首先对各风险因素进行逐层分析,找出其关联性,建立绕飞管制指挥事故的事故树模型。以此为基础,结合层次分析法,确定各层风险指标权重。同时依据各指标总权重的排序结果,提出了在绕飞情况下管制指挥事故的管控措施,最后以长沙区域管制空域为实例对所提方案进行验证。结果表明:在本文方案下虽然雷雨、风切变、协调程序过于复杂和航空器偏离计划航路仍然是导致绕飞管制事故的重要因素,但其重要程度下降了6.2%,且成熟管制员人数不足、扇区流量大和预案频繁发生变化的状况得到有效解决。证明了该方案能够有效抑制导致绕飞管制指挥事故发生的事件的重要程度,减少因极端天气和扇区负荷过大而出现的安全风险事故,整体提高管制系统的稳定性和可靠性。To mitigate the potential for control command mishaps during aircraft fly-arounds,a comprehensive risk assessment model was established in this study,employing a blend of fault tree analysis(FTA)and analytic hierarchy process(AHP).This model aids in the development of risk control strategies for controllers in the event of command accidents during fly-around control,and also validates the efficacy of the proposed measures.Risk factors were meticulously examined at each level to discern their interconnections,thereby facilitating the construction of a fault tree model for fly-around control command accidents.Subsequently,the Analytic Hierarchy Process was integrated to ascertain the weightage of each risk indicator tier.Concurrently,based on the cumulative weightage ranking of each index,fly-around control command accident control measures were suggested.The proposed plan was ultimately validated using Changsha Area Controlled Airspace as an example.The findings reveal that while factors such as thunderstorms,wind shear,convoluted coordination procedures,and aircraft deviation from planned routes continue to play a significant role in fly-around command incidents,their importance has diminished by 6.2 percent.Moreover,issues such as a lack of experienced controllers,high sector traffic,and frequent scheme alterations have been effectively addressed.The results underscore that the proposed scheme can significantly reduce the prominence of basic events occurring in fly-around control command accidents.It also minimizes safety risks associated with extreme weather conditions and excessive workload,thereby enhancing the stability and reliability of the control system.

关 键 词：空中交通管理 绕飞管制 风险控制 事故树 层次分析 

分 类 号：V355.1[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]