食管鳞癌发病风险预测模型研究进展  

Research Progress on Risk Prediction Models for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

作　　者：冯晨曦 耿庆超 林鑫 徐慧芳 刘茵 张韶凯 张建功 FENG Chenxi;GENG Qingchao;LIN Xin;XU Huifang;LIU Yin;ZHANG Shaokai;ZHANG Jiangong(School of Public Health,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University/Henan Cancer Hospital,Henan Provincial Research Center of Cancer Prevention and Control Program,Henan International Joint Laboratory of Cancer Prevention,Zhengzhou 450008,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学公共卫生学院,河南郑州450001 [2]郑州大学附属肿瘤医院/河南省肿瘤医院,河南省肿瘤防控工程研究中心,河南省肿瘤预防国际联合实验室,河南郑州450008

出　　处：《中国肿瘤》2024年第2期140-146,共7页China Cancer

基　　金：国家重点研发计划政府间国际科技创新合作重点专项(2021YFE0106000)。

摘　　要：筛查与早诊早治是降低食管鳞癌(esophageal squamous cell carcinoma,ESCC)疾病负担的重要措施。但是由于我国庞大的人口基数,难以在有限的资源条件下对所有目标人群提供筛查。然而通过发病风险预测模型,可有效识别出ESCC的高危人群,使其进行后续的内镜检查,有助于缩小筛查范围,实现ESCC的精准防控。因此,构建发病风险预测模型逐渐成为ESCC防控研究的重点之一。当前国内外关于ESCC发病风险预测模型的研究仍处于发展阶段。为全面探讨现有ESCC发病风险预测模型的特点,全文从研究设计、预测变量及评价指标等方面,对其现状进行综述,并在此基础上提出了今后研究可重点考虑的内容,以期为进一步开发和完善ESCC发病风险预测模型提供参考依据。Screening and early diagnosis and treatment are important measures to reduce the burden of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma(ESCC).Due to the large population in China,it is difficult to provide screening for all target populations under limited resources.However,through the use of risk prediction models,high-risk individuals for ESCC can be effectively identified for subsequent endoscopic examinations,which is helpful to narrow the scope of screening and achieve precise prevention and control of ESCC.Therefore,the construction of risk prediction models has gradually become one of the focuses of ESCC prevention and control research.Currently,research on the prediction models for ESCC risk is still in the development stage both domestically and internationally.This paper reviews the latest research progress of prediction models for ESCC in terms of research design,predictive variable and evaluation indicators,to provide reference for the further improvement of ESCC risk prediction.

关 键 词：食管鳞癌 内镜筛查 预测模型 风险分层 

分 类 号：R735.1[医药卫生—肿瘤]