ChatGPT与大模型将对经济学研究范式产生什么影响?  

How Will ChatGPT and Large Models Influence the Research Paradigm in Economics?

作　　者：洪永淼 汪寿阳 HONG Yongmiao;WANG Shouyang(Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Economics and Management,and MOE Social Science Laboratory of Digital Economic Forecasts and Policy Simulation,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Center for Forecasting Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,数字经济监测预测预警与政策仿真教育部哲学社会科学实验室,北京100190 [3]中国科学院预测科学研究中心,北京100190

出　　处：《计量经济学报》2024年第1期1-25,共25页China Journal of Econometrics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“计量建模与经济政策研究”基础科学中心(71988101)。

摘　　要：以ChatGPT为代表的大模型是通用生成式人工智能技术的一大突破,不但对人类生产方式、生活方式与思维方式产生深刻影响,也正在推动经济学研究范式的变革.大模型是大数据与人工智能催生的一种新的系统分析方法,适合于研究复杂人类经济社会系统.本文首先讨论ChatGPT与大模型的主要特征以及发展范式,特别是大模型如何破解“维数灾难”的方法论原理,然后详细探讨ChatGPT与大模型将如何影响经济学研究范式,包括从理性经济人假设到“人机结合”的人工智能经济人,从孤立经济人假设到其行为可测度的社会经济人,从宏观经济学和微观经济学的分离到两者的融合,从定性分析和定量分析的对立到两者的统一,从长期流行的经济学研究“小模型”范式到“大模型”范式,以及计算机算法作为经济学日益重要的研究范式与研究方法等.最后,指出包括大模型在内的人工智能技术作为经济学乃至社会科学的研究方法的局限性.Large models,exemplified by ChatGPT,represent a significant breakthrough in general generative artificial intelligence technology.Their far-reaching implications extend into diverse facets of human production,lifestyle,and cognitive processes,prompting a transformative paradigm shift in the realm of economic research.Originating from the convergence of big data and artificial intelligence,these large models introduce a novel approach to systemic analysis,particularly adept at scrutinizing intricate human economic and social systems.We first discuss the fundamental characteristics and development paradigms of ChatGPT and large models,focusing on how these models effectively tackle the methodological challenges posed by the“curse of dimensionality”.We then delve into how ChatGPT and large models will influence the paradigm of economic research.This includes a shift from the assumption of the rational economic man to an AI-driven“human-machine hybrid”economic agent,from the isolated economic individual to the socio-economic individual whose behaviors are measurable,from the separation of macroeconomics and microeconomics to their integration,from the separation of qualitative and quantitative analysis to their unification,and from the long-dominant“small-model”paradigm to a“large-model”paradigm in economic research.We also cover the increasing significance of computer algorithms as a prominent research paradigm and method in economics.Finally,we point out the limitations inherent in artificial intelligence technologies,including large models,when employed as a research method in economics and the broader social sciences.

关 键 词：大数据 大模型 研究范式 维数灾难 因果关系 实证研究 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F224.0[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程] TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程]