个体化预测老年牙周病病人病情严重程度的风险列线图模型的建立与验证  

Establishment and validation of risk nomogram model for individual prediction of severity of periodontal disease in elderly patients

作　　者：桑识途 随明显 SANG Shitu;SUI Mingxian(Department of Stomatology,Taihe Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine Affiliated to Anhui University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Taihe Anhui 236600,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽中医药大学附属太和中医院口腔科,安徽太和236600

出　　处：《蚌埠医学院学报》2024年第2期199-203,共5页Journal of Bengbu Medical College

基　　金：安徽中医药大学临床科研项目(KJ2018BP111)。

摘　　要：目的:构建可个体化预测老年牙周病病人病情严重程度的风险列线图模型,并对模型的预测效能进行验证。方法:选取279例老年牙周病病人作为研究对象,收集病人相关资料,采用单因素和logistic回归多因素分析影响老年牙周病病人病情进展至中重度的相关因素,并建立列线图预测模型。结果:279例中,轻度83例(29.7%),中重度196例(70.3%)。年龄≥70岁、吸烟、糖尿病、偏侧咀嚼、刷牙频率<2次/天是老年牙周病病人病情进展至中重度的独立危险因素(P<0.05~P<0.01)。基于以上5项危险因素建立相关列线图模型,并对该模型进行验证。结果显示:训练集和验证集的C-index分别为0.734(95%CI:0.712~0.758)和0.717(95%CI:0.698~0.738),两集的校正曲线和理想曲线拟合反映均较好,两集的AUC分别为0.751和0.748。结论:老年牙周病病人病情进展至中重度的危险因素较多,本研究基于危险因素建立的列线图模型具有良好的预测能力,可为临床早期控制牙周病病情发展提供参考依据。Objective:To construct a risk nomogram model for predicting the severity of periodontal disease in elderly patients,and to verify the predictive efficacy of the model.Methods:A total of 279 elderly patients with periodontal disease were selected as the research objects,and the relevant data of the patients were collected.Univariate logistic regression was used to analyze the related factors affecting the progression of the elderly patients with periodontal disease to moderate to serve level,and the nomogram prediction model was established.Results:Among the 279 cases,83 cases(29.7%)were mild,196 cases(70.3%)were moderate and severe.Age≥70 years old,smoking,diabetes mellitus,unilateral chewing,brushing frequency<2 times/d were the independent risk factors for the progression of moderate to severe periodontal disease in elderly patients(P<0.05 to P<0.01).Based on the above five risk factors,the relevant nomogram model was established and verified.The results showed that the C-index of training set and validation set were 0.734(95%CI:0.712-0.758)and 0.717(95%CI:0.698-0.738),respectively.The calibration curve and ideal curve fitting of the two sets were well reflected,and the AUC of the two sets were 0.751 and 0.748,respectively.Conclusions:There are many risk factors for the progression of periodontal disease in elderly patients.The nomogram model based on risk factors has good predictive ability,which can provide reference for early clinical control of periodontal disease.

关 键 词：牙周病 老年病人 病情严重程度 危险因素 列线图 

分 类 号：R781.4[医药卫生—口腔医学]