分行业信息披露与分析师预测——基于行业信息披露指引发布的证据  

Industry-classified Information Disclosure and Analysts’Forecasts Evidence from the Release of Industry Information Disclosure Guidelines

作　　者：罗宏[1] 吴丹[1] 郭一铭 LUO Hong;WU Dan;GUO Yiming(Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu,611130)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学,四川成都611130

出　　处：《财贸研究》2024年第2期97-110,共14页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目“会计信息对地方政府隐性债务风险的预测价值研究”(22XJA790006)。

摘　　要：利用沪深交易所分批次发布的行业信息披露指引作为准实验场景,考察分行业信息披露对分析师预测的影响。研究发现:分行业信息披露显著提高了分析师盈余预测准确度,降低了乐观度与分歧度,且该结论在经过异质性处理效应检验、平衡趋势检验、安慰剂检验、更换核心变量测量方法等一系列稳健性测试后仍然成立。作用机制检验结果表明,行业信息可比性是分行业信息披露影响分析师预测的主要渠道。异质性分析显示,当行业信息敏感性较高、分析师行业专长水平较低、分析师信息获取成本和处理成本较高时,分行业信息披露对分析师预测的积极影响更明显。进一步研究表明,分行业信息披露显著增加了分析师可以获得的公共信息。This article uses the industry information disclosure guidelines issued by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges as a quasi-natural experiment to test the impact of industry-classified information disclosure on analysts’forecasts.The research results show that the implementation of the industry-classified information disclosure policy has significantly improved the accuracy of analysts’earnings forecasts,and reduced the degree of optimism and divergence.And this conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests.The test results of the mechanism indicate that the improvement of information comparability is the main channel,through which industry-classified information disclosure affects analysts’forecasts.Heterogeneity analysis shows that when the industry information is more sensitive,analysts have less professional expertise,and the cost of acquiring and processing for information is higher,the positive impact of industry-classified information disclosure on analyst forecasts is more significant.Further analysis shows that the industry-classified information disclosure significantly increases the public information available to analysts.

关 键 词：分行业信息披露 分析师预测 信息环境 准自然实验 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理] F832[经济管理—国民经济]