地方隐性债务、银行风险感知与企业信贷可得性  

Local Implicit Debt Risk,Banks'Risk Perception and Corporate Credit Availability

作　　者：蔡庆丰[1] 吴奇艳 吴冠琛 CAI Qing-feng;WU Qi-yan;WU Guan-chen(School of Economics,Xiamen University)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2024年第1期112-130,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“数字经济对区域协调发展的影响与对策研究”(批准号23&ZD079)。

摘　　要：防范化解地方政府债务风险是中国当前经济工作的重点问题之一,特别是地方隐性债务风险及其处置事关能否“守住不发生系统性风险底线”。地方隐性债务风险是否会通过银行部门向实体经济溢出,进而影响域内企业的投融资行为有待检验。本文构建了政府、银行以及企业三个部门的联动框架,研究地方隐性债务风险如何影响域内企业信贷可得性。研究发现,地方隐性债务风险的增加会降低域内企业的信贷可得性,且在地方财政监管力度低、地区商业银行数字化转型程度低以及国有企业的样本中作用更加明显。上述结论在进行了内生性问题讨论及一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立。机制研究表明,地方隐性债务风险会通过提升银行的流动性囤积水平、提高贷款利率发挥作用。进一步研究表明,地方隐性债务风险并没有导致企业外部融资约束的提升,原因在于其会促使域内企业进行融资结构的调整和优化,提升股权和商业信用融资水平。然而,向商业信用融资的转变,存在域内重大风险向外蔓延的可能。本文的研究厘清了地方隐性债务风险通过银行风险感知作用于实体经济和微观企业的内在渠道,为地方政府实现“防风险”和“稳增长”双重目标提供了有益思考。The report to the 2oth National Congress of the Communist Party of China states that it is necessary to"guard the bottom line against systemic risks".Government implicit debt is a critical area of risk prevention and resolution.Commercial banks,as the most important provider of funds for local government implicit debt,have the keenest sense of local implicit debt risk.At the same time,commercial banks are the most important suppliers of funds to all kinds of market players in China,which are important hubs connecting various sectors.Can their perception of the risk of local implicit debt affect their credit allocation to enterprises in the same region?This paper attempts to investigate the impact of local implicit debt risk on the availability of credit to enterprises through rigorous empirical research and to clarify its possible influence mechanism.Using a sample of listed companies from 2005 to 2020,this paper explores the impact of local implicit debt risk on the availability of credit to local enterprises,and the channels of its effect through the establishment of a three-sectoral analytical framework of governments,banks and enterprises.It is found that an increase in local implicit debt risk significantly reduces the credit availability of local firms,and is more significant in the samples with lower local financial regulation,lower digitization of regional commercial banks,and state-owned enterprises(SOEs).The mechanism analysis shows that an increase in local implicit debt risk reduces credit availability to firms by increasing banks'liquidity hoarding and raising lending rates.Further research shows that an increase in local implicit debt risk significantly increases the scale of equity financing and the scale of commercial credit financing for firms.This paper integrates the government,banks and enterprises into one analytical framework to investigate the impact of local implicit debt risk on the availability of credit to enterprises,which helps to clarify the potential mechanism of risk transmission,a

关 键 词：地方隐性债务风险 企业融资 银行贷款 流动性囤积 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]