城市评价方法论初探  

City evaluation methodology:An overview

作　　者：刘海猛[1,2] LIU Haimeng(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《地理研究》2024年第3期596-620,共25页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42171210);北京市科协青年人才托举项目(BYESS2023206)。

摘　　要：城市作为人类文明的关键象征,对其兴衰演变状态的评价是城市规划建设与治理的重要参考,也对地方政府绩效考核、企业投资决策、居民定居择业等具有重要意义。然而,当前城市评价研究普遍存在评价目的和受众不明确、指标体系构建缺乏理论或现实依据、指标冗余度高或对比性差、忽视城市异质性、过于追求结果排名、缺少结论的校验和反馈等问题,并且鲜有文献从方法论角度对城市评价体系的构成、原理、范式、流程、不确定性等进行系统阐释。鉴于此,本文首先对城市复杂系统的内涵与演化规律进行解析,进而阐明了城市评价的相关概念、基本构成和功能,梳理了城市评价的主要范式,并提出城市评价的人本原理、涌现原理、平衡原理、反馈原理等4个基本原理。明确城市评价体系由评价主体、客体、指标体系、方法模型和评价结果5部分构成。系统论述了城市定量评价的一般流程和10个步骤。从认知、数据、指标、方法、系统等方面梳理了城市评价的不确定性和局限性。最后,提出了面向未来可持续发展的城市评价展望,通过组织多元化评价主体,搭建统一共享的基础信息平台,建立城市时空知识图谱,融合大数据、人工智能、数字孪生等新技术,推进“动态感知、多评协同”,建设包容、安全、公平、绿色、韧性的未来可持续城市。Cities serve as pivotal symbols of human civilization,and evaluating their development and decline is crucial for urban planning,construction,and governance.Such evaluations carry substantial implications for local government performance assessments,corporate investments,and residents' settlements.However,current research on city evaluation faces several challenges,including ambiguous evaluation purposes and target audiences,a lack of a solid theoretical or practical foundation for index systems,high redundancy in indices,poor comparability,disregard for urban diversity,an excessive focus on city rankings,and a dearth of result validation and feedback mechanisms.There is also a shortage of systematic interpretation regarding the composition,principles,paradigms,process,and uncertainties associated with urban evaluation systems.In this paper,we commence by scrutinizing the structural interconnections and evolution of urban systems through the lens of complex systems and living organisms.Subsequently,we elucidate the fundamental concepts,components,and functions of city evaluation,categorize the key paradigms,and propose four basic principles:people-centric,emergence,balance,and feedback-driven.We posit that the city evaluation system comprises five essential elements:the evaluating subject,the evaluated object,the index framework,evaluation methods,and the evaluation findings.We provide a comprehensive exploration of the general quantitative city evaluation process,encompassing ten distinct phases.These phases include clarifying the subject/object and the evaluation goals,establishing the theoretical underpinning and logical framework,outlining the criteria for indicator selection,establishing the evaluation index system,ensuring the consistency and dimensionless of the indicators,determining the weightings and thresholds of the indicators,selecting or constructing the evaluation model,analyzing and validating the evaluation outcomes,displaying and applying the results,and overseeing and incorporating feedback int

关 键 词：城市复杂系统 评价指标体系 方法论 城市体检 智慧城市 韧性城市 城市可持续发展 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济]