配电网变压器剩余使用寿命预测  

Prediction of remaining useful life of transformer in distribution network

作　　者：李冬 钱飞翔 李今宋 邓清飞 LI Dong;QIAN Feixiang;LI Jinsong;DENG Qingfei(NARI Group Corporation,Nanjing 210000;NARI Technology Nanjing Control Systems Co.,Ltd,Nanjing 210000)

机构地区：[1]南瑞集团有限公司,南京210000 [2]国电南瑞南京控制系统有限公司,南京210000

出　　处：《电气技术》2024年第3期32-37,共6页Electrical Engineering

摘　　要：变压器是配电网实现电压变换的关键设备,其安全性能关乎整个配电系统的可靠性。变压器剩余使用寿命的准确预测是实现其安全预警的前提条件,复杂的机械结构及多变的工作环境使材料之间产生温度波动而生成机械应力,应力的持续作用造成绝缘材料疲劳老化,导致变压器绝缘性能衰退而易发生突发失效。因此,本文提出一种基于粒子滤波器的变压器剩余使用寿命预测方法,以实现对多种工况下变压器剩余使用寿命的准确辨识。首先,给出变压器绝缘纸内部油温的计算方法,并以此建立变压器剩余使用寿命的估算模型;然后,采用粒子滤波算法对绝缘纸内部油温计算的不确定性进行概率量化,并将此不确定性描述转化为变压器剩余使用寿命估算的不确定性分布,获取更为准确的变压器剩余使用寿命值;最后,算例分析证明了所提方法的有效性。Transformer is the key equipment to realize voltage conversion in distribution network,and its safety is related to the reliability of the whole distribution system.The accurate prediction of the remaining useful life(RUL)of the transformer is the prerequisite for the safety warning.The complex mechanical structure and the changeable working environment cause the temperature fluctuation between the materials and the mechanical stress is generated.The continuous action of the mechanical stress causes the fatigue aging of the insulation materials,resulting in the decline of the insulation performance and the sudden failure of the transformer.Therefore,a particle filter based forecast method of RUL for transformer is proposed in this paper to achieve the accurate identification of transformer RUL under various working conditions.Firstly,the calculation method of the internal oil temperature of the transformer insulation paper is established,and the estimation model of the transformer insulation RUL is established.Secondly,the particle filter algorithm is used to probabilistically quantify the uncertainty of the internal oil temperature calculation of the insulating paper,and the uncertainty description is converted into the uncertainty distribution of the estimated RUL of the transformer,so as to obtain a more accurate RUL of the transformer.An example analysis shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.

关 键 词：变压器 剩余使用寿命(RUL) 可靠性 粒子滤波器 

分 类 号：TM41[电气工程—电器]