社保费征管、市场势力与企业负担——基于社保移交税务征管的研究  

Collection of Social Insurance Contributions,Market Power and the Burden on Enterprises:Research on Tax Authorities Taking Full Responsibility for Collecting Social Insurance Contributions

作　　者：黄叙涵 张玲 马光荣[1] 秦雪征[2] HUANG Xuhan;MA Guangrong;ZHANG Ling;QIN Xuezheng(Renmin University of China,100872;Peking University,100871)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院,100872 [2]北京大学经济学院,100871

出　　处：《财贸经济》2024年第3期5-22,共18页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“税收政策的福利效果评估——基于我国近年来减税政策的研究”(71973142);国家社会科学基金重大项目“现代财政—金融结合框架下的地方政府债务管理研究”(21&ZD095)。

摘　　要：加强社保费征管是促进社保基金可持续的重要手段,但也会提高企业的用工成本,压缩盈利空间。本文通过构建理论模型,讨论了加强社保费征管的经济归宿,分析得出在社保费征管变严格后,劳动密集型企业、产品市场势力小和劳动力市场势力小的企业的盈利空间有更大幅度的下降。企业预期利润的下降,将及时反映到股价的下降上。2018年的《国税地税征管体制改革方案》规定社保费征管移交税务部门。本文通过事件研究法,分析了改革方案出台对企业股价的影响。实证研究表明,劳动密集型企业、低社保缴纳遵从度企业、产品市场势力小和劳动力市场势力小的企业,在改革信息发布后市场价值下跌更为明显,表明社保费实际缴费率上升,将在更大程度上压缩这些企业的盈利空间。本文提供了社保征收体制改革对企业影响的理论机制和经验证据,对今后进一步完善配套政策、减轻企业负担、保护市场主体具有重要意义。Social security is a safety net for people’s livelihoods and a stabilizer for society.The Report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly puts forward the need to improve a multi-level social security system that is fair,uniform,sustainable and covers the entire population in both urban and rural areas.In recent years,with the aging of the population,the social security funds are faced with increasing pressure.Strengthening the collection and management of social insurance contributions will undoubtedly promote the sustainability of social security.In this context,on July 20,2018,the General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council issued the Reform Program of the State Tax and Local Tax Collection and Management System,proposing that from January 1,2019 onward,the social insurance contributions will be collected by the tax authorities.A comprehensive assessment of the benefits and costs of the Reform Program is of great significance.On the one hand,the reform will change the previous collection method of social insurance contributions,prompting enterprises to pay social insurance contributions in a truthful and compliant manner,improving the efficiency and lowering the cost of collection,expanding social security coverage,and promoting the establishment of a sustainable social security system.On the other hand,however,the increased intensity of collection will raise the de facto burden of enterprises in paying social insurance contributions and their labor costs,and squeeze their profit margins.The sustainable development of social security requires not only a higher quality of collection,but also sustained economic growth and higher incomes for laborers.In view of this,the standardization of the collection and management of social insurance contributions should be coordinated with the protection of market players and the stabilization of the economy.In order to answer the question of to what extent the actual rate

关 键 词：税务全责征收社保费 社保费归宿 企业价值 市场势力 

分 类 号：F272.5[经济管理—企业管理]