基于拉格朗日方法的鲁南一次回流大暴雪的水汽来源分析  

Moisture Source Analysis of a Heavy Snowstorm in Southern Shandong Province Based on Lagrange Method

作　　者：任伟 全林生 任燕 原文杰 Ren Wei;Quan Linsheng;Ren Yan;Yuan Wenjie(Meteorological Station of Shandong Air Traffic Control Bureau of Civil Aviation,Ji’nan 250107,China;Shandong Meteorological Engineering Technology Center,Ji’nan 250031,China;Shangdang District Meteorological Bureau,Changzhi 047100,China)

机构地区：[1]民航山东空管分局气象台,济南250107 [2]山东省气象工程技术中心,济南250031 [3]山西省长治市上党区气象局,山西长治047100

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2024年第2期16-27,共12页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金(ZR2020MD052);山东省气象局重点项目(2022SDQXZ06)。

摘　　要：利用拉格朗日轨迹模式HYSPLIT,结合E-P诊断法,以及区域源汇归因法,研究了2015年鲁南一次回流大暴雪的水汽来源及输送路径。结果表明,影响暴雪过程的水汽路径有3条:一条是回流路径,沿中低空的回流冷空气经渤海、黄海输送至鲁南;另一条是南支路径,沿槽前西南气流经华南、华中向北输送至鲁南;第三条是偏西路径,沿平直的西风气流从黄土高原东侧输送至鲁南。源汇区定量分析显示,回流暴雪的水汽源地有6个,分别是渤海黄海区域、华东中北部区域、中南区域、南海区域、亚洲大陆南部和北部。对比不同源地的水汽贡献发现,中南区域与渤海黄海区域对回流暴雪的贡献最大,这与两者初期较高的源区水汽摄取量密切相关。华东中北部区域虽然初期水汽摄取较少,但由于其沿途水汽损耗较低并且在目标区域降水转化率较高,因此最终的水汽贡献不容忽视。尽管亚洲大陆南部和北部区域初期水汽吸收量明显高于华东中北部区域的,但过高的沿途水汽损耗,最终导致它们的实际水汽贡献低于华东中北部区域的贡献率。中国南海区域的水汽贡献最小,一方面是由较高的水汽损耗所致,另一方面还与初期较低的水汽吸收量有关。By the Lagrange trajectory model(HYSPLIT),E-P diagnostic method and moisture source attribution method,the moisture sources and transport paths of a backflow heavy snowstorm in southern Shandong Province in 2015 are studied.The results show that there were three major water vapor paths affecting the snowstorm.One was the backflow path,which entered into southern Shandong along with the mid-and low-level backflow cold air through the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea.Another was the southern branch path,which entered into southern Shandong northward along with the southwest airflow through the South China and Central China.And the third was westward path,which entered into southern Shandong together with the westerly airflow from the east side of the Loess Plateau.Quantitative analysis of the converged source areas shows that there were six water vapor sources of the backflow snowstorm,including the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea region,the central and northern East China,the central and southern China,the South China Sea,the south and the north of Asian continent.The contributions of different sources to the heavy snowstorm are compared and the results are as follows;the central and southern China region and the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea region contributed the most,which was attributed to their higher water vapor intake in the source area.The initial water vapor intake in the central and northern East China region was small,but the final water vapor contribution cannot be ignored because of the low water vapor loss along the way and the high precipitation conversion rate in the target region.Although the initial water vapor intake in the south and the north of the Asian continent was significantly higher than that of the central and northern East China,the actual water vapor contribution of the south and the north of the Asian continent was lower than that of the central and northern East China due to the high evaporation in the air parcel along the way.The contribution of water vapor in the South China Sea was the smallest,whic

关 键 词：暴雪 拉格朗日方法 蒸发-降水 水汽贡献 

分 类 号：P426.63[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]