碳税对矿税制油田勘探开发投资的影响分析  

Analysis of the Impact of carbon tax on oilfield E&D investment under the concession agreement

作　　者：张玺 葛海明 王家兴 王磊[3] 祖瑞璟 ZHANG Xi;GE Haiming;WANG Jiaxing;WANG Lei;ZU Ruijing(CNPC Niger Petroleum S.A;PetroChina International Iraq FZE Iraq Branch;CNPC International(Chad)Co.,Ltd.;Sub-district Office of Balizhuang,Chaoyang District,Beijing)

机构地区：[1]中国石油尼日尔公司 [2]中国石油哈法亚公司 [3]中国石油乍得公司 [4]北京市朝阳区八里庄街道办事处

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2024年第2期70-76,共7页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：作为温室气体最重要的排放者之一,石油公司在做出投资决策时被要求考虑碳排放对环境的影响。以矿税制合同下的某油田为例,分析碳税对油田勘探开发投资的影响,将碳成本整合到矿税制下油田的经济评价模型中,研究不同的碳税政策对油田盈利能力和石油公司投资决策的影响。主要结论:1)将碳税纳入到石油公司的决策中将显著影响油田的现金流,进而改变投资决策;2)对勘探开发和炼化过程中排放的二氧化碳征税是当前原油价格下的最佳征收范围;3)允许碳税从应税收入中扣除会通过税盾效应影响油田勘探开发投资,碳税越高,影响越明显。本研究提供了针对碳价、征收范围和抵扣政策的相关分析,以帮助石油公司进行更有效的预测,也为东道国政府的碳税政策提供多个组合;对油田的经济评价模型进行了改进,为石油公司的合同谈判提供决策支持。As one of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases,oil companies are expected to consider the impact of carbon emissions on the environment when making investment decisions.Taking an oilfield under the concession agreement as an example,the paper analyzes the impact of carbon tax on oilfield exploration and development investment and integrates the carbon costs into the economic evaluation model to examine the impact of different carbon tax policies on oilfield profitability and oil company investment decisions.The main conclusions include the integration of carbon tax into oil company decision-making will have a significant impact on oilfield cash flow and investment decisions;taxation of carbon emissions from exploration,development,and refining is the best taxation scope given the current price of crude oil;allowing carbon tax to be deducted from taxable income will affect investment in oilfield exploration and development due to the tax shield effect,with the higher the carbon tax,the more obvious the impact.This study provides several analyses of carbon taxes,tax scope,and tax deduction policies to help oil companies make more effective predictions,and also provides multiple combinations for host governments’carbon tax policies.It also improves the economic evaluation models to provide decision support for oil company contract negotiations.

关 键 词：碳税 碳减排 油田勘探开发投资 矿税制 经济评价 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F812.42[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X196