2013—2020年江苏省南通地区食管癌发病与死亡趋势及空间聚集性分析  

Temporal Trends and Spatial Clustering of Esophageal Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Nantong,Jiangsu from 2013 to 2020

作　　者：潘少聪 侯晓艳[1] 刘毛毛 韩颖颖[1] 徐红[1] 林玲[1] 蔡波[1] PAN Shaocong;HOU Xiaoyan;LIU Maomao;HAN Yingying;XU Hong;LIN Ling;CAI Bo(Nantong Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nantong 226007,China)

机构地区：[1]南通市疾病预防控制中心,江苏南通226007

出　　处：《中国肿瘤》2024年第3期186-192,共7页China Cancer

摘　　要：[目的]分析江苏省南通市2013—2020年食管癌发病和死亡情况及其空间分布与变化规律。[方法]利用南通市肿瘤登记信息数据库食管癌登记数据,计算食管癌粗发病(死亡)率、中国人口标化率(中标率)、世界人口标化率(世标率)。采用Joinpoint回归模型计算食管癌发病(死亡)率的平均年度变化百分比;运用ArcGIS 10.2软件分析食管癌发病和死亡的空间分布模式及空间聚集情况。[结果]2013—2020年南通市食管癌新发和死亡分别为23644例和19633例。食管癌粗发病率、中标率和世标率分别为39.68/10万、14.96/10万和15.05/10万。食管癌粗死亡率、中标率和世标率分别为32.95/10万、11.64/10万和11.59/10万。食管癌粗发病率、中标率、世标率平均每年分别下降9.83%、5.27%和10.04%,食管癌粗死亡率、中标率、世标率平均每年分别下降2.61%、7.27%和7.44%,下降趋势变化均存在统计学意义(P均<0.05)。空间相关分析及聚类和异常值分析显示南通西部地区如皋市和海安市为食管癌发病、死亡聚集高发地区;南部地区崇川区、开发区、海门区和启东市为发病和死亡低发聚集区。[结论]2013—2020年江苏省南通市食管癌发病率和死亡率呈下降趋势,但仍处于较高水平。南通市食管癌发病和死亡分布均呈现显著的空间聚集特征。[Purpose]To analyze the incidence and mortality trends and spatial distribution patterns of esophageal cancer in Nantong of Jiangsu from 2013 to 2020.[Methods]The esophageal cancer registration data from 2013 to 2020 were collected from cancer registries in Nantong.The crude incidence/mortality rates,age-standardized incidence/mortality rates by Chinese standard population(ASIRC,ASMRC)and age-standardized incidence/mortality rates by world standard population(ASIRW,ASMRW)for esophageal cancer were calculated.The average annual percentage change(AAPC)of esophageal cancer incidence/mortality rates were computed using the Joinpoint regression model.The ArcGIS 10.2 software was used to analyze the spatial distribution patterns and spatial clustering of esophageal cancer incidence and mortality.[Results]From 2013to 2020,there were 23644 new cases and 19633 deaths due to esophageal cancer in Nantong.The crude incidence rate was 39.68/105,ASIRC and ASIRW were 14.96/105and 15.05/105,respectively.The crude mortality rate was 32.95/105,ASMRC and ASMRW were 11.64/105and11.59/105,respectively.The AAPC in crude incidence rate,ASIRC,ASIRW,crude mortality rate,ASMRC and ASMRW were-9.83%,-5.27%,-10.04%,-2.61%,-7.27%and-7.44%,respectively(P<0.05).Spatial clustering analysis revealed that western areas of Nantong municipality(Rugao and Hai'an)were high-incidence and high-mortality clusters for esophageal cancer.In contrast,some regions in the southern area of Nantong,including Chongchuan District,Development Zone,Haimen District and Qidong City,were low-incidence and low-mortality clusters.[Conclusion]From 2013 to 2020,the incidence and mortality rates of esophageal cancer in Nantong showed a declining trend but remained at a relatively high level.Esophageal cancer incidence and mortality exhibited significant spatial clustering characteristics in Nantong municipality.Effective comprehensive prevention and control measures should be targeted at high-incidence and high-mortality clusters of esophageal cancer gradually reduce the di

关 键 词：食管癌 流行病学 地理信息系统 空间分布 江苏 

分 类 号：R73-31[医药卫生—肿瘤] R735.1[医药卫生—临床医学]