Risk factors,prognostic factors,and nomograms for distant metastasis in patients with diagnosed duodenal cancer:A population-based study  

作　　者：Jia-Rong Shang Chen-Yi Xu Xiao-Xue Zhai Zhe Xu Jun Qian 

机构地区：[1]Department of Oncology,Jiangsu Province Hospital of Chinese Medicine,The Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine,Nanjing 210000,Jiangsu Province,China [2]Department of Proctology,Nanjing Hospital of Chinese Medicine,Nanjing 210000,Jiangsu Province,China [3]Department of Digestive Cancer Surgery,Jiangsu Province Hospital of Chinese Medicine,The Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine,Nanjing 210000,Jiangsu Province,China

出　　处：《World Journal of Gastrointestinal Oncology》2024年第4期1384-1420,共37页世界胃肠肿瘤学杂志（英文版）（电子版）

基　　金：Supported by State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine Base Construction Stomach Cancer Special Fund,No.Y2020CX57;Jiangsu Provincial Graduate Research and Practical Innovation Program Project,No.SJCX23-0799.

摘　　要：BACKGROUND Duodenal cancer is one of the most common subtypes of small intestinal cancer,and distant metastasis(DM)in this type of cancer still leads to poor prognosis.Although nomograms have recently been used in tumor areas,no studies have focused on the diagnostic and prognostic evaluation of DM in patients with primary duodenal cancer.AIM To develop and evaluate nomograms for predicting the risk of DM and person-alized prognosis in patients with duodenal cancer.METHODS Data on duodenal cancer patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2019 were extracted from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results database.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for DM in patients with duodenal cancer,and univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to determine independent prognostic factors in duodenal cancer patients with DM.Two novel nomograms were established,and the results were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves,calibration curves,and decision curve analysis(DCA).RESULTS A total of 2603 patients with duodenal cancer were included,of whom 457 cases(17.56%)had DM at the time of diagnosis.Logistic analysis revealed independent risk factors for DM in duodenal cancer patients,including gender,grade,tumor size,T stage,and N stage(P<0.05).Univariate and multivariate COX analyses further identified independent prognostic factors for duodenal cancer patients with DM,including age,histological type,T stage,tumor grade,tumor size,bone metastasis,chemotherapy,and surgery(P<0.05).The accuracy of the nomograms was validated in the training set,validation set,and expanded testing set using ROC curves,calibration curves,and DCA curves.The results of Kaplan-Meier survival curves(P<0.001)indicated that both nomograms accurately predicted the occurrence and prognosis of DM in patients with duodenal cancer.CONCLUSION The two nomograms are expected as effective tools for predicting DM risk in duodenal cancer patients

关 键 词：Duodenal cancer Distant metastasis NOMOGRAM Risk factors Prognostic factors 

分 类 号：R735.9[医药卫生—肿瘤]