中国脑瘤发病和死亡流行现况及预测  

The epidemiology and prediction of brain tumors incidence and mortality in China

作　　者：雷少元 李玉龙 孙菲[3] 刘宏军 吴月 郭艳苏 LEI Shaoyuan;LI Yulong;SUN Fei;LIU Hongjun;WU Yue;GUO Yansu(Department of Evidence-Based Medicine,Xuanwu Hospital,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100053;Health Service Department of the Guard Bureau of the General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China,Beijing 100034;Beijing Geriatric Healthcare Center,Xuanwu Hospital,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100053;Beijing Municipal Geriatric Medical Research Center,Beijing 100053,China)

机构地区：[1]首都医科大学宣武医院循证医学中心,北京100053 [2]中共中央办公厅警卫局保健处,北京100034 [3]首都医科大学宣武医院老年保健及疾病防治中心办公室,北京100053 [4]北京市老年病医疗研究中心,北京100053

出　　处：《基础医学与临床》2024年第4期454-458,共5页Basic and Clinical Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(81971200);北京市自然科学基金(7222082);北京市老年病医疗研究中心改革与发展项目(11000023T000002036320)。

摘　　要：目的 描述2020年中国脑瘤发病和死亡的流行现况,预测到2040年中国脑瘤发病和死亡负担,为更科学的制定我国脑瘤防治策略提供数据支持。方法 提取国际癌症研究署(IARC)2020年Cancer Today数据库。采用Segi’s世界标准人口的年龄构成计算脑瘤的年龄标化发病率和死亡率。分性别、年龄别描述中国脑瘤发病和死亡情况。利用《世界人口展望(2022)》数据结合脑瘤发病和死亡率预测到2040年中国脑瘤发病和死亡负担。结果 2020年中国脑瘤新发病例约8.0万人,死亡约6.5万人,年龄标化发病率和死亡率分别为4.1/10万和3.2/10万。中国脑瘤的年龄标化发病率低于美国、绝大部分欧洲、北美洲等地区脑瘤发病率,但高于非洲、中美洲、加勒比海等地区。2040年中国脑瘤的发病和死亡人数相比2020年分别增长32.1%和41.5%。结论 中国脑瘤负担整体比较严重,需进一步明确人群脑瘤危险因素,有针对性地完善相应防控策略以降低脑瘤负担。Objective To describe the incidence and mortality of brain tumors in China in 2020 and to predict the disease burden up to 2040.Methods The brain tumor incidence and mortality in 2020 were recorded based on the data from International Agency for Cancer Research(IARC),Cancer Today database.The incidence and mortality were standardized by age using Segi′s world standard population.The burden of brain tumors in 2040 was predicted with assuming that national rates remained constant in 2020.Results It was estimated there were approximately 79600 new brain tumors cases and 65200 deaths in China in 2020.The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of brain tumors in China were 4.1/100000 and 3.2/100000,respectively,which were lower than the United States of America,most of European countries and Australia.The incidence and mortality were higher than Africa,central America,and the Caribbean.From 2020 to 2040,the brain tumors cases and deaths are predicted to have an increase as 32.1%and 41.5%respectively.Conclusions The disease burden of brain tumors was still heavy in China.Further studies are urgently needed to clarify the epidemic trend of tissue typing and risk factors of brain tumors,which may support the development of effective prevention strategies.

关 键 词：脑瘤 发病率 死亡率 中国 

分 类 号：R739.4[医药卫生—肿瘤]