近40a黄土高原酿酒葡萄春霜冻气候风险评估  

Climate Risk Assessment of Spring Frost for Grapevine on the Loess Plateau in the Past 40 Years

作　　者：杨晓娟[1] 李金哲 孙彦坤[2] 刘布春[1] 孙靖博 栾庆祖[3] 刘园[1] 雷添杰 韩锐 YANG Xiao-juan;LI Jin-zhe;SUN Yan-kun;LIU Bu-chun;SUN Jing-bo;LUAN Qing-zu;LIU Yuan;LEI Tian-jie;HAN Rui(Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/National Engineering Laboratory of Efficient Crop Water Use and Disaster Reduction/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Environment,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100081,China;College of Resources and Environment,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030;Beijing Climate Center,Beijing 100089)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所/作物高效用水与抗灾减损国家工程实验室/农业农村部农业环境重点实验室,北京100081 [2]东北农业大学资源与环境学院,哈尔滨150030 [3]北京市气候中心,北京100089

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2024年第4期404-418,共15页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“重大自然灾害监测预警与防范”重点专项“林果水旱灾害监测预警与风险防范技术研究”(2017YFC1502800);中国农业科学院科技创新工程。

摘　　要：选取黄土高原酿酒葡萄产区13个气象站点1981−2020年春霜冻期(4月1日−5月31日)逐日最低气温观测资料,运用数理统计和空间分析方法,研究不同年代黄土高原酿酒葡萄春霜冻灾害发生站次比、频率、日数、强度及风险,评估黄土高原酿酒葡萄春霜冻气候风险。结果表明:1981−2020年,黄土高原酿酒葡萄春霜冻期平均日最低气温呈极显著上升趋势(P<0.01),气候倾向率为0.42℃·10a^(-1);日最低气温极小值呈极显著下降趋势(P<0.01),气候倾向率为−0.75℃·10a^(-1);日最低气温极小值的气候倾向率负值主要分布在产区北部或南部零星地区,左权地区降温(0.76℃·10a^(-1))达显著水平(P<0.05)。黄土高原轻度春霜冻发生站次比下降,中度、重度及综合春霜冻上升;轻度、中度春霜冻频率和日数降低,重度春霜冻频率、日数增加,且重度春霜冻强度呈显著增加趋势(P<0.05),春霜冻综合频率、日数降低,强度呈显著增加趋势(P<0.05);各级春霜冻频率、日数、强度自西南向东北增加。黄土高原酿酒葡萄气候风险特征为轻、中度春霜冻的风险降低,重度和综合风险增加;高风险区域主要分布在北部的左权、太古等地,低风险区域主要分布在南部的鄠邑区、渭南等地。To assess the climate risks of spring frost on the Loess Plateau,the daily minimum temperature observation data during spring frost period(April 1-May 31)from 1981 to 2020 for 13 meteorological stations on the Loess Plateau grapevine area were collected,and the station ratio,frequency,number of days,intensity and risk were studied by mathematical statistics and spatial analysis methods.The results showed that during the spring frost period of grapevine on the Loess Plateau from 1981 to 2020,the average daily minimum temperature showed a highly significant upward trend with 0.42℃·10y^(-1) of climate tendency,the lowest daily minimum temperature showed a highly significant downward trend with-0.75℃·10y^(-1) of climate tendency.The negative climate tendency rates of lowest daily minimum temperature were distributed sporadically and the higher absolute value was in Zuoquan with-0.76℃·10y^(-1).The station ratio of slight spring frost on the Loess Plateau decreased,while the moderate,severe and comprehensive spring frost increased.The frequency and number of days of slight and moderate spring frost decreased,while the severe spring frost showed increased,and the intensity of severe spring frost showed a significant upward trend;the comprehensive frequency and number of days of spring frost decreased,while the intensity showed a significant upward trend.The frequency,number of days,and intensity of spring frosts increased from southwest to northeast for all spring frost levels.The climatic risk of grapevines on the Loess Plateau decreased in the risk of slight and moderate spring frosts,and increased in the risk of severe and comprehensive spring frosts.The high-risk areas were mainly distributed in Zuoquan,Taigu and other places in the north,and the low-risk areas were mainly distributed in Huyi and Weinan in the south.The results could provide a scientific basis for the prevention and mitigation of grapevine spring frost on the Loess Plateau.

关 键 词：酿酒葡萄 黄土高原 春霜冻 风险 

分 类 号：S425[农业科学—植物保护] S663.1