基于解释结构模型的海绵城市建设风险因素分析  

Risk factor analysis of sponge city construction based on interpretive structural model

作　　者：程元元 汪志荣[1] 闫晓婷 魏晓贺 王金石 CHENG Yuanyuan;WANG Zhirong;YAN Xiaoting;WEI Xiaohe;WANG Jinshi(School of Environmental Science and Safety Engineering,Tianjin University of Technology,Tianjin 300384,China)

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学环境科学与安全工程学院,天津300384

出　　处：《天津理工大学学报》2024年第1期126-132,共7页Journal of Tianjin University of Technology

基　　金：天津市自然基金重点项目(18JCZDJC39600)。

摘　　要：为加强风险管理者对海绵城市建设风险的理解和管控,运用扎根理论方法对文献资料分析归纳总结,进行风险识别,构建关键风险因素清单和风险因素作用关系。结果表明,风险因素可分为威胁性风险和脆弱性风险,并通过复杂的多因素作用方式导致风险事件发生。在风险因素关系基础上,运用解释结构模型(interpretative structural model,ISM)和交叉影响矩阵相乘法(matrices impacts croises-multiplication appliance classment,MICMAC)构建海绵城市建设风险因素层次结构关系、驱动力和依赖度值。海绵城市建设风险因素可划分为L_(1)和L_(2)两个层级,社会、技术、资金和管理位于L_(1)层,是导致海绵城市建设风险直接因素,具有高依赖性,而经济、法规政策和自然位于L_(2)层,是导致海绵城市建设间接因素,具有高驱动力。In order to strengthen the risk managers’understanding and control of sponge city construction risks,the grounded theory method is used to analyze and summarize literature data to identify risks,and to construct a list of key risk factors and the relationship between risk factors.The results show that the risk factors can be divided into two categories:threatening risk and vulnerability risk,and lead to serious consequences of risk events through the complex multi-factor action.Based on the relationship of risk factors,using interpretative structural model(ISM)and matrices impacts croises-multiplication appliance classment(MICMAC),the hierarchical structure relationship,driving force and dependence of sponge city construction risk factors degree value is constructed.The results show that the risk factors of sponge city construction can be divided into two levels:L_(1) and L_(2).Society,technology,capital and management are located in the L_(1) layer,which are the direct factors leading to the risk of sponge city construction and have high dependence.The economy,laws and policies and nature are located on the L_(2) floor,these are indirect factors leading to the construction of a sponge city and have high driving force.

关 键 词：海绵城市建设 风险因素分析 扎根理论 解释结构模型 交叉影响矩阵相乘法 

分 类 号：TU992[建筑科学—市政工程]