天津市工业“三废”排放的脱钩关系及影响因素研究——基于Tapio脱钩模型及LMDI分解法  

Study on the Decoupling Relationship and Impacting Factors of Industrial"Three Wastes"Discharge in Tianjin Using Tapio Decoupling Model and LMDI Decomposition Method

作　　者：苏婷 徐庆娟 姜春然 SU Ting;XU Qing-juan;JIANG Chun-ran(College of Mathematics and Statistics,Nanning Normal University,Naning Guangxi 531000,China)

机构地区：[1]南宁师范大学数学与统计学院,广西南宁531000

出　　处：《环境科学导刊》2024年第2期24-29,共6页Environmental Science Survey

摘　　要：利用天津市2003—2018年工业“三废”排放的相关数据,采用Tapio脱钩模型分析天津市经济增长与工业“三废”排放之间的弹性脱钩关系,并基于扩展的Kaya恒等式将工业“三废”排放的影响因素分解为排污强度、产业结构、经济规模、人口规模四个指标,结合LMDI分解法的加法模型对各个影响因素进行定量分析。结果发现:天津市近15年来,经济增长与工业废水排放之间主要表现为强脱钩状态;经济规模是工业“三废”排放的主要贡献因子,其对工业“三废”排放具有正向促进效应。Based on the relevant data of industrial"three wastes"emissions in Tianjin from 2003 to 2018,the Tapio decoupling model was used to analyze the elastic decoupling relationship between economic growth and industrial"three wastes"emissions of Tianjin,and the impacting factors of industrial"three wastes"emissions were decomposed into four indicators,namely,pollution intensity,industrial structure,economic scale and population size,based on the expanded Kaya identity,combined with the addition model of LMDI decomposition method,quantitative analysis was conducted on each influencing factor.The results showed that in recent 15 years,the relationship between economic growth and industrial wastewater discharge in Tianjin was mainly in a strong decoupling state;Economic scale was the main contribution factor of industrial"three wastes"emission,which had a positive promoting effect on industrial"three wastes"emission.

关 键 词：工业“三废” Tapio脱钩模型 Kaya恒等式 LMDI分解法 天津市 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]