基于PDEM的台风作用下柱式隔离开关随机可靠性及失效风险分析  

ANALYSIS OF STOCHASTIC RELIABILITY AND FAILURE RISK OF COLUMN DISCONNECTOR UNDER TYPHOON BASED ON THE PROBABILITY DENSITY EVOLUTION MODEL

作　　者：施首健 陈文通 杨欢红 朱良龙 吴雪峰 徐成浩 SHI ShouJian;CHEN WenTong;YANG HuanHong;ZHU LiangLong;WU XueFeng;XU ChengHao(State Grid Zhejiang Electric Co.,Ltd.Jinhua Power Supply Company,Jinhua 321000,China;Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai 200090,China;Pujiang Guangyuan Electric Power Construction Co.,Ltd.,Jinhua 322299,China)

机构地区：[1]国网浙江省电力有限公司金华供电公司,金华321000 [2]上海电力大学,上海200090 [3]浦江光远电力建设有限公司,金华322299

出　　处：《机械强度》2024年第2期364-370,共7页Journal of Mechanical Strength

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51777119)资助。

摘　　要：为评估柱式隔离开关在台风过程中的结构失效风险,考虑了风场和材料抗力的随机性,建立了隔离开关结构随机可靠性高效求解模型。首先,基于功率谱密度模型,考虑了地面粗糙度、平均风速和分界波数的随机性,给出了台风的随机场模型;其次,利用Abaqus有限元分析软件,建立了隔离开关结构的三维结构力学分析模型。同时,基于概率密度演化(Probability Density Evolution Model,PDEM)理论,给出了结构目标变量的概率密度函数计算方法;最后,采用Matlab-Abaqus进行联合模拟分析计算,实现了隔离开关结构可靠性的高效求解。结果表明,隔离开关绝缘支柱底部的极限应力为结构控制参数,风场和材料抗力的随机性对结构易损性曲线影响显著,设计过程中应控制材料抗力层次的随机性。To estimate the structural failure risk of column disconnector subjected to typhoon,the efficient solution model of stochastic reliability was established considering the uncertainties of wind field and material resistance.First,the typhoon random field model was given based on the power spectral density,in which the uncertainties of ground roughness,average wind speed,and boundary wave number were incorporated.Then,the three⁃dimensional structural mechanics analysis model of disconnector was proposed based on the Abaqus software.Third,the calculation method of probability density function of structure target variable was obtained using the probability density evolution model(PDEM).Finally,the efficient solution strategy was realized by the joint simulation of Matlab and Abaqus.Results indicated that the extreme stress of the bottom section of insulating pillar was the mainly dominated parameter.The uncertainties of wind field and material resistance have great influence on fragility curve.The uncertainty of material aspect should be controlled in structure design.

关 键 词：台风 可靠性 柱式隔离开关 失效风险 概率密度演化 

分 类 号：TM564.1[电气工程—电器]