基于FY-4A卫星数据的短时强降水监测预警指标  

Monitoring and Early Warning Indicators of Short-Term Rainstorm Processes Based on FY-4A Satellite Data

作　　者：邵建 何劲夫[4] 陈敏 张亚刚 张肃诏 邵雅涵 SHAO Jian;HE Jinfu;CHEN Min;ZHANG Yagang;ZHANG Suzhao;SHAO Yahan(Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions,China Meteorological Administration,Yinchuan 750002;Yinchuan Meteorological Bureau,Yinchuan 750002;Ningxia Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction,Yinchuan 750002;Ningxia Meteorological Observatory,Yinchuan 750002;NO.1 Senior High School of Yinchuan,Ningxia,Yinchuan 750001)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室,银川750002 [2]银川市气象局,银川750002 [3]宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室,银川750002 [4]宁夏气象台,银川750002 [5]宁夏银川一中,银川750001

出　　处：《气象科技》2024年第1期141-150,共10页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41965001);宁夏自然科学基金项目(2022AAC03670);宁夏回族自治区青年拔尖人才项目(2017-RQ0086)资助。

摘　　要：选取2018—2021年汛期短时强降水天气过程,利用相关性分析、箱线图法和极值统计法,尝试研究FY-4A卫星产品在短时强降水天气过程中的监测预警指标。研究表明:(1)FY-4A卫星多通道数据可以作为短时强降水监测预警的定量化指标予以应用。(2)筛选出相关性较好的13项产品统计出短时强降水的监测预警指标,其中赋值类指标4项,数值判别类指标9项(含辅助指标3项);初步设定13项指标中有9项达标时,短时强降水会发生。(3)在评估基础上完善了指标,监测预警效果有所提高,TS评分提高5.4%,空报率降低2.7%,漏报率降低1.9%。The short-time rainstorm caused by small and mesoscale weather systems,which has characteristics such as short duration and strong disaster potential.The short-time rainstorms are always the focus of meteorological research and the challenge in weather forecasting.Currently,FY-4A satellite products have a few applications in research and service,especially in the analysis of short-term rainstorms.The application and analysis of satellite cloud images in weather reports are still mainly based on judgment and qualitative extrapolation,lacking quantitative proximity prediction indicators of short-term rainstorms.Based on FY-4A satellite product data and ground precipitation observation data from 2018 to 2021,we study the analysis of short-term rainstorm weather processes in the flood season,which occurs from May to September in Ningxia.By using correlation analysis,box-plot and extreme value statistics methods,we evaluate the monitoring and early warning indicators of FY-4A satellite products in the weather process of short-term rainstorms.The results show that:(1)FY-4A satellite data can serve as not only qualitative indicators but also quantitative indicators for short-term rainstorms monitoring and early warning after processing with methods such as correlation analysis,box plot,and extreme value statistics.(2)Thirteen products of the FY-4A satellite have a good correlation with the sample sequence of short-term heavy precipitation,including Black Body Temperature(TBB),Convective Inception(CIX),Cloud Mask(CLM),Cloud Phase(CLP),Cloud Type(CLT),Cloud Top Height(CTH),Cloud Top Pressure(CTP),Cloud Top Temperature(CTT),Total Precipitable Water(TPW),Quantitative Rainfall Rate Estimation(QPE),Cloud Effective Radius(CER),Cloud Liquid Water Path(LWP)and Tropopause Folding Uppermost Height(TZD),which can serve as monitoring and early warning indicators.We set the criteria that short-term heavy rainfall will occur when nine out of thirteen product indicators meet the standards,which can be optimized and adjusted through ope

关 键 词：FY-4A卫星 短时强降水 监测预警指标 检验 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P694[天文地球—地质学]