产业链视角下中国关键金属镍贸易格局演化  

Evolution of China's critical metal nickel trade pattern from the perspective of industry chain

作　　者：王珂[1,2] 夏启繁 WANG Ke;XIA Qifan(Center for World Geography and Geostrategic Studies,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China;Institute for Global Innovation and Development,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学,世界地理与地缘战略研究中心,上海200062 [2]华东师范大学,全球创新与发展研究院,上海200062

出　　处：《世界地理研究》2024年第3期40-55,共16页World Regional Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD330)。

摘　　要：中国为世界镍产品生产大国,但本身镍资源稀缺,且在“碳中和”背景下,战略性新兴产业和低碳能源技术的发展高度依赖镍等关键金属,各国围绕关键金属的争夺日趋激烈。为深入探究中国镍资源产业链的贸易格局,提升产业链掌控力,本文基于2001—2020年相关产品贸易数据,借助进口依存度、多元化指数及相互依存模型等手段探讨中国镍资源产品对外贸易的格局演化特征。研究发现:①中国镍资源储量极低,供需矛盾突出,对外依存度极高。②中国在全球镍资源产品价值链中所处的地位逐渐上升,主要出口具有较高附加值的中下游产品,进口附加值较低的上游镍矿砂及精矿产品,进口市场高度集中且路径依赖效应增强,出口市场逐步分散,路径依赖有所减弱。③中国在全球镍资源贸易相互依存格局中的优势地位有所强化,主要表现在下游产品的贸易中,但随着印尼产能的强劲释放和相关贸易国家(地区)的反倾销制裁等影响,中国镍资源贸易优势的保持与扩大面临巨大的压力。基于此,未来中国应该注重对海外镍矿资源的投资开发,推动构建区域供应链,并通过加强主要上游产品进口国家(地区)对中国镍产业链中下游产品的依赖来对冲中国从这些国家大量进口上游产品所带来的风险。Though China is the world's largest producer of nickel products,its nickel resources are scarce.Under the background of"carbon neutrality",competition among countries around critical metals such as nickel is becoming increasingly fierce,since the development of strategic emerging industries and low-carbon energy technologies are highly dependent on those metals.This article deeply explores the trade pattern of China's nickel resource industrial chain to improve the control of the industrial chain.We analyzed the evolutionary features of the pattern of China's foreign trade in nickel resource products based on the relevant product trade data from 2001 to 2020,import dependence,diversification index and interdependence model.Our research shows:(1)China's nickel resource industry has the following problems:extremely low reserves,outstanding contradiction between supply and demand,and extremely high external dependence.(2)China's position in the global value chain of nickel resources products is gradually rising.China mainly imports upstream nickel ore and concentrate products with low added value and exports midstream and downstream products with higher added value.The import market is highly concentrated and the path dependence has increased,while the export market is gradually decentralized and the path dependence has weakened.(3)China's dominant position in the interdependence pattern of global nickel resources trade has been strengthened,mainly in the trade of downstream products.However,the maintenance and expansion of China's advantage in nickel resources trade is under great pressure with the strong release of Indonesia's production capacity and the impact of anti-dumping sanctions from relevant trading countries(regions).Based on this,China should focus on the investment and development of overseas nickel resources in the future,promote the construction of regional supply chains,and hedge the risks arising from China's large imports of upstream products from these countries by strengthening the dependence of

关 键 词：镍资源贸易 产业链 关键金属 时空格局 相互依存 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易] F426[经济管理—产业经济]