疫情风险下基于看涨期权的生鲜农产品供应链决策  

Fresh Agricultural Product Supply Chain Decision-making Based on Call Options under Epidemic Risk

作　　者：秦智聃 李保东 林强[1] QIN Zhidan;LI Baodong;LIN Qiang(Baby&In fant Product&Service Supply Chain Research Center,Chongqing University of Education,Chongqing 400067,china)

机构地区：[1]重庆第二师范学院婴幼产品与服务供应链研究中心,重庆400067

出　　处：《物流技术》2024年第2期106-116,共11页Logistics Technology

基　　金：重庆市社会科学规划培育项目(2020PY49);重庆市教育委员会人文社会科学研究重点项目(22SKGH451);重庆市自然科学基金面上项目(CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX1057);重庆市教育委员会科学技术研究项目(KJQN202001611)。

摘　　要：新冠疫情对生鲜农产品供应链造成严重冲击,为缓解这一痛点,在疫情风险背景下,构建了一个生鲜农产品供应商和零售商组成的单周期两阶段生鲜农产品供应链,并引入看涨期权,研究零售商和供应商的最优订货定价策略。研究表明:零售商的最优期权订购量是疫情风险系数、期权订购价和期权执行价的减函数。供应商不同时存在最优期权订购价和最优期权执行价,但若固定其中一个,便能获得供应商最优期望利润。供应商通过提高期权订购价或期权执行价均可增加自身期望利润,但其代价是减少零售商的期望利润,以致供应链总期望利润降低,这对供应链的发展不利,可通过调整期权价格,以实现供应链协调。另外,疫情风险对供应链期望利润的影响存在一个拐点,当疫情风险低于该拐点时,供应链期望利润是疫情风险的增函数,此时零售商购买看涨期权对供应链有利,反之则不利。因此在疫情初期,零售商购买看涨期权会不断增加供应链收益,但随着疫情的不断恶化,供应链收益会不断减少。During the COVID-19 period,lockdowns or traffic restrictions have severely disrupted the circulation of fresh agricultural products and exposed the fresh agricultural products supply chain to risk of in⁃terruption,which caused great impact to the supply and retail of fresh agricultural products.In order to solve the problems of the supply and purchasing of fresh agricultural products in future epidemic scenarios,we in⁃tended to use the option theory with flexible order quantity and execution time to solve the decision-making problem of a fresh agricultural product supply chain.In this research,in the context of a threatening epidemic,we constructed a single-cycle two-stage fresh agricultural products supply chain composed of a fresh agricul⁃tural product supplier and a retailer,in which the supplier is the dominant player.Then,we introduced the call option theory and used the Stackelberg game to study the retailer's optimal option ordering strategy and the supplier's optimal option pricing strategy.The result shows:(1)The retailer has an optimal option ordering quantity,and the optimal option ordering quantity is a decreasing function of the epidemic risk coefficient,op⁃tion ordering price and option execution price,and an increasing function of the freshness of fresh agricultural products;(2)The supplier does not have a solution which could jointly achieve optimal option ordering price and optimal option execution price,but when either of the two is achieved,the supplier's optimal expected profit can be obtained.(3)The supplier can increase their own expected profit by increasing the option order⁃ing price or option execution price,but at the cost of greater loss to the retailer's expected profit in relation to the supplier's gain,which will lead to reduced total expected profit of the fresh agricultural products supply chain and thus is detrimental to the long-term development of the supply chain.According to the comparative analysis of the decentralized and centralized decision-making modes,if the su

关 键 词：疫情风险 生鲜农产品 供应链 看涨期权 STACKELBERG博弈 

分 类 号：F326.6[经济管理—产业经济] F274F323.7