金融危机预警情报的失灵与治理  

Failure and Governance of Financial Crisis Early Warning Intelligence

作　　者：魏晨[1] 赵冰峰 吴晨生 王冰琪 Wei Chen;Zhao Bingfeng;Wu Chensheng;Wang Bingqi(Institute of Science and Technology Information,Beijing Academy of Science and Technology,Beijing 100044;Beijing Intelli Consulting Co.Ltd.,Beijing 100044)

机构地区：[1]北京市科学技术研究院科技情报研究所,北京100044 [2]北京科英坦利咨询有限公司,北京100044

出　　处：《情报杂志》2024年第4期31-38,30,共9页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“情报视角下大国竞争中的信息迷雾成因与识别研究”(编号:21CTQ020)研究成果。

摘　　要：[研究目的]金融安全是国家安全的重要构成部分。金融危机预警作为金融监管的前哨和第一道防线,可将危机扼杀在摇篮中或将灾害损失降到最少。因此,探究金融危机预警情报服务框架,不仅为完善金融风险治理提供新的思路,还有助于提升情报服务金融安全的能力和水平。[研究方法]基于情报学视角,采用访谈和文献调查方法,对金融危机预警情报失灵的根源进行探析,构建了金融危机预警情报框架,并从预警原则、情报感知、分析策略和预警机制等方面进行阐释。[研究结论]研究表明,实施分级分解的分析战略、转变预警方式和强化危机预警机制等手段,有助于在不确定风险中提高危机管理响应效能,减少危机预警情报失灵的发生。[Research purpose]Financial security is an important component of national security.Financial crisis warning,as the outpost and first line of defense for financial regulation,can minimize losses in economic and other aspects.Therefore,exploring the financial crisis warning intelligence service model not only provides new path for improving financial risk governance,but also helps to enhance the ability and level of intelligence services for financial security.[Research method]Based on the perspective of intelligence,this paper adopts interview method and document survey method,analyzes the root causes of the intelligence failure forms of financial crisis warning,constructs a framework for financial crisis warning intelligence,and explains it from aspects such as early warning principles,intelligence perception,analysis strategies and warning mechanisms.[Research conclusion]It shows that implementing a hierarchical and decomposed analysis strategy,transforming warning methods and strengthening crisis warning mechanisms can enhance the intelligence response performance of financial crisis warning in uncertain risk scenarios,and reduce the occurrence of crisis warning failures.

关 键 词：金融危机 金融情报 情报失灵 预警情报模型 预警机制 危机管理 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] G350[文化科学—情报学]