基于SEIR-SPN的突发事件网络舆情演化及预警机制  

Research on the Evolution and Early Warning Mechanism of Network Public Opinion for Emergencies Based on SEIR-SPN

作　　者：顾海硕 贾楠 孟子淳 陈鹏[1] Gu Haishuo;Jia Nan;Meng Zichun;Chen Peng(School for Informatics Cyber Security,People's Public Security University of China,Beijing 102600;Changqing Branch of Jinan Public Security Bureau,Jinan 250399)

机构地区：[1]中国人民公安大学信息网络安全学院,北京102600 [2]济南市公安局长清分局,济南250399

出　　处：《情报杂志》2024年第4期146-155,共10页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金资助项目“面向风险防范的首都基层社会应急响应能力提升研究”(编号:21JCC108);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“大数据驱动的城市基层多主体风险治理理论与方法研究”(编号:2020JKF501)研究成果。

摘　　要：[研究目的]突发事件爆发常伴有网络舆情扩散蔓延,极易引发社会恐慌、激化矛盾,为提高突发事件网络舆情的应对效率,该文对突发事件网络舆情演化及预警机制进行研究。[研究方法]首先,在梳理突发事件网络舆情演化过程及预警体系的基础上,提出SEIR演化博弈理论和SPN模型及其同构的Markov链分析突发事件网络舆情预警机制;其次,构建了基于SEIR-SPN的突发事件网络舆情预警模型,并设计模型运行路径及预警规则;最后,通过案例分析进行模型适用性验证。[研究结论]研究表明,通过对突发事件网络舆情演化平衡点、传播阈值及预警概率的演化分析,可以系统地为政府在“是否干预”和“干预程度”方面提供决策支持。[Research purpose]Emergencies is often accompanied by the spread of online public opinion,which can cause social panic and intensify contradictions.In order to enhance the efficiency of addressing the vicious spread of online public opinion in emergencies,this paper explores the evolution and early warning mechanism of online public opinion for emergencies.[Research method]On the basis of combing the evolution process and early warning system,early warning mechanism of network public opinion for emergencies were proposed based on SEIR theory and SPN model.Additionally,the SEIR-SPN network public opinion early warning model was constructed,and the model operation path and warning rules were designed.At last,two cases were used to verify the practicability of the model.[Research conclusion]The results show that,by analyzing the evolutionary equilibrium point,transmission threshold and early warning probability of online public opinion in emergencies,it can help to provide decision-making support in terms of whether to intervene and the degree of intervention.

关 键 词：网络舆情 突发事件 舆情演化 预警机制 SEIR-SPN 传播阈值 预警概率 

分 类 号：X91[环境科学与工程—安全科学]