基于土地利用/覆被动态变化的粤港澳大湾区碳储量评价与预测  

Assessment and Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

作　　者：郑慧玲 郑辉峰 ZHENG Hui-ling;ZHENG Hui-feng(College of Marine Geosciences,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;People's Liberation Army of China Unit 93617,Beijing 101400,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学海洋地球科学学院,青岛266100 [2]中国人民解放军93617部队,北京101400

出　　处：《环境科学》2024年第4期2321-2331,共11页Environmental Science

摘　　要：土地利用/覆被变化会增加区域碳储量或引发碳损耗,进而影响全球气候.研究湾区土地利用与碳储量变化的影响机制,对区域生态系统保护及社会经济可持续发展具有重要意义.基于InVEST模型和PLUS模型,分析了粤港澳大湾区土地利用与碳储量的动态变化特征及影响机制,进一步模拟预测了2030年3种发展情景(自然趋势情景、建设用地优先情景和生态优先情景)下土地利用类型变化对碳储量的影响.结果表明:(1)2000~2020年粤港澳大湾区的耕地(减少5.38%)和建设用地(增加8.68%)变化最显著,其余用地类型的变化较小.林地作为大湾区的主要用地类型,同样也是重要的碳库,空间上集中分布于东、北、西三面的台地和丘陵地区,碳储存低值区集中于中部平原,以建设用地为主.(2)受不同用地类型相互转化的影响,粤港澳大湾区的碳损失了20.12×10^(6) Mg.耕地和林地面积的减少以及建设用地面积的增加是碳损耗的主要原因.(3)模拟研究发现生态保护措施将有效提高区域碳储量.具体来说,当耕地、林地和草地向建设用地的转化减少20%,湿地和水体向建设用地的转化减少30%时(生态优先情景),区域碳储量可增加2.58×10^(6) Mg.研究结果可以为土地利用和城市发展规划的制定提供理论依据,促进粤港澳大湾区“碳达峰碳中和”目标的实现.Land use/land cover(LULC)changes promote regional carbon storage capacity or trigger carbon depletion,which in turn result in a significant impact on global climate change.Understanding the impact of LULC on carbon storage changes in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area plays a vital role in regional ecosystem conservation and sustainable socio-economic development.The present study used the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(the Greater Bay Area,GBA)as an example to analyze the relationship between LULC and carbon storage combined with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation(PLUS)model.We further predicted the variation in carbon storage through the change in LULC types under three scenarios(natural trend scenario,NT;built-up land priority scenario,BP,and ecological priority scenario,EP)in 2030.The results showed that cropland(which decreased by 5.38%)and built-up land(which increased by 8.68%)underwent the most significant changes over the past 20 years,whereas forest,grassland,wetland,water,and bare land showed a lesser degree of change.Forests,as the dominant land type,were also the most important carbon pool with high carbon storage,which was distributed in mountains and hills in the east,north,and west.By contrast,areas with low carbon storage were widely distributed in built-up land of urban metropolitan regions.We noticed that the carbon storage in the GBA lost 20.12×10^(6) Mg due to the increasing of builtup land and the decreasing of cropland and forest,whereas ecological protection measures would effectively enhance regional carbon storage.Specifically,the regional carbon storage could be increased by 2.58×10^(6) Mg when the conversion of cropland,forest,and grassland into built-up land was reduced by 20%,and the conversion of wetland and water into built-up land was reduced by 30%(under the EP).The present study could be a valid reference for managers to develop policies in more reasonable planning of land use and

关 键 词：土地利用/覆被(LULC) 碳储量 InVEST模型 PLUS模型 粤港澳大湾区(GBA) 

分 类 号：X144[环境科学与工程—环境科学]