1368-1911年山陕地区高分辨率农业收成序列重建与初步分析  

Reconstruction and preliminary analysis of high resolution agricultural harvest sequence in Shanxi and Shaanxi regions from 1368 to 1911

作　　者：康翊博 杨煜达[2] Kang Yibo;Yang Yuda(Department of History,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,Guangdong,China;Center for Historical Geography,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学历史学系,广东广州510275 [2]复旦大学历史地理研究中心,上海200433

出　　处：《地理科学》2024年第3期523-533,共11页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(22&ZD223)资助。

摘　　要：本文探讨了地方志在长时段高分辨率农业收成序列重建中的限制因素:将地方志对丰歉2种现象记载的峰值伴随出现的现象定义为“丰歉组合”现象,初步分析了其可能成因;分析了记载的完整性限制。通过引入丰歉等级非线性赋值与年际衰减指数较好地突破了这些限制,提出了新的区域农业收成序列的重建方法,该方法可以:①在保持年分辨率的同时较大程度延伸重建时间尺度;②将丰歉两种现象整合到同一序列中。利用该方法成功重建了明清时期山陕地区4个子区域的年分辨率的农业收成序列。结果表明:①山陕地区的农业收成呈现40a左右准周期的低频高幅脉冲与高频低幅振荡2种波动模式;②山陕地区的农业收成与气候要素存在良好的“冷抑暖扬”“干抑湿扬”的对应关系;③社会系统的“脉冲型”“适应型”“周期型”响应模式在明清时期山陕地区农业收成序列中均有体现:严重歉收事件周期性地冲击地方社会,其他绝大多数时段则以高频低幅振荡为主,而两类歉收事件均在18世纪明显减少,这些均与明清当地人口的增长态势、“康乾盛世”等史实相一致。This study explores two limiting factors of long-term high-resolution agricultural harvest sequences reconstruction based on gazetteers.The first one is the interference caused by the coexistence of good and poor harvest records in the spatiotemporal distribution in the gazetteers.This study defines this phenomenon as“good and bad harvests combination”,and preliminarily analyzes its possible causes.This second limiting factor caused by the asymmetry of missing records of good and bad harvests is also analyzed.This study effect-ively overcomes these limitations by introducing non-linear assignment of crop yield levels and interannual de-cay indices,and proposes a new reconstruction method for regional agricultural harvest sequences,which could:1)Extend the reconstruction time scale to a large extent while maintaining annual resolution;2)Integ-rate the phenomena of harvest and failure into the same sequence into the same sequence.The method was ap-plied to four sub-regions in Shanxi and Shaanxi during the Ming and Qing dynasties.The results show that:1)The agricultural harvest in Shanxi and Shaanxi shows two fluctuation patterns:low-frequency high-amp-litude pulses with a quasi cycle of about 40 years and high-frequency low amplitude oscillations;2)There is a good correspondence between the agricultural harvest in Shanxi and Shaanxi and climate factors,which is“negative during cold and positive during warm”and“negative during dry and positive during humid”;3)The“pulse”“adaptive”,and“periodic”response patterns of the social system to climate change are reflected in the agricultural harvest sequence in Shanxi and Shaanxi during the Ming and Qing dynasties:Severe crop failures periodically impacted local society,while the majority of other periods were characterized by high-frequency minor crop failure fluctuations.Both types of crop failures significantly decreased in the 18th century,which is consistent with the significant population growth in this area and the“prosperous era from Kangxi R

关 键 词：历史气候 农业收成 地方志 明清时期 山陕地区 丰歉组合 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]