基于IRI模式的电离层预报模型建立  

The establishment of ionospheric prediction model based on IRI model

作　　者：黄炜昭 辛拓 吉丽娅 黄林超 HUANG Weizhao;XIN Tuo;JI Liya;HUANG Linchao(Shenzhen Power Supply Bureau,Shenzhen,Guangdong 518000,China;Yubang Digital Technology(Guangdong)Limited Company,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510000,China;Digital Grid Research Institute of China Southern Power Grid,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510000,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳供电局,广东深圳518000 [2]煜邦数字科技(广东)有限公司,广东广州510000 [3]南方电网数字电网研究院,广东广州510000

出　　处：《测绘技术装备》2024年第1期13-23,共11页Geomatics Technology and Equipment

摘　　要：电离层内部带电粒子运动和变化状态受太阳辐射与地磁场作用的影响,服从物理规律的约束,常规数学逼近方法进行电离层预报缺乏物理机制的支持。由于断电断网等不可预计因素的影响,地面全球导航卫星系统(GNSS)连续观测站数据容易出现中断,从而影响对电离层的监测,并进一步影响改正数播发。为了在GNSS连续观测站数据缺失的情况下,重现电离层误差延迟,填补观测数据空白,本文提出了一种基于物理模式的电离层总电子密度高精度时域预报方案,并通过模拟实验验证了基于物理模式的电离层时序预报方式相较于传统数学方法的优势。实验结果表明,基于IRI的电子浓度总含量(TEC)预报误差基本上都小于多项式计算的TEC预报误差的50%,且随着IGR权重的增加,基于IRI的TEC预报误差也逐渐变小,与模拟的TEC真值更加接近;通过对比拟合时段和预报时段与原始IRI2016模型的计算结果,发现更新后IG_(12)指数驱动下的IRI2016模型计算的TEC精度得到了明显提高,计算残差标准差精度上午时段在低纬度和中纬度地区分别提高了83.9%和49.8%,下午时段在低纬度和中纬度地区分别提高了63.0%和60.6%,与GNSS TEC的整体符合情况更好,从而验证了基于IRI模式建立的电离层预报模型在中国中、低纬度地区具有较高的应用精度。The motion and changes of charged particles in the ionosphere are often influenced by solar radiation and geomagnetic field,they are also subject to the physical law.The conventional methods for ionospheric prediction ususally use mathematical approximation,so lack the support of physical mechanism.A prediction model of ionospheric electron density based on physical model is proposed in this paper,and the advantages of the proposed model compared with the traditional mathematical method is verified by simulation experiment in order to recur ionospheric error,and to make up the gap of observation data.The reults show that the prediction error of TEC based on IRI is basically less than 50% of those calculated by polynomial,and it will gradually decrease with the increase of IGR weight,which is closer to the true value of the simulated TEC.It is found that the accuracy of the TEC calculated by the updated IRI2016 model is obviously improved by comparing the calculated results of IRI2016 model driven by the update IG12 index with the original IRI2016 model in the fitting and predicting periods,and the accuracy of residual standard deviation has been improved by 83.9% and 49.8% in low and mid latitude regions in the morning period,and by 63.0% and 60.6% in low and mid latitude regions in the afternoon period,respectively,which is more consistent with the GNSS TEC on the whole.Thus,it has been verified that the ionospheric prediction model based on the IRI model has higher accuracy in the low and mid latitude regions in China.

关 键 词：IRI IG_(12)指数 GNSS TEC 电离层预报 

分 类 号：P412.294[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]