基于petri网的森林火灾应急救援流程网络模型及时效研究  

Network Model and Timeliness Research on Petri Net-based Forest Fire Emergency Rescue Process

作　　者：徐毓蔓 张以晨 张继权[2] 丁立全 XU Yuman;ZHANG Yichen;ZHANG Jiquan;DING Liquan(Jilin Emergency Management Institute,Changchun Institute of Technology,Changchun 130103,China;College of the Environment,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130024,China;Baishan City Branch of Jilin Provincial Forest Brigade of the People's Armed Police Force,Changchun 130000,China)

机构地区：[1]长春工程学院吉林应急管理学院,吉林长春130103 [2]东北师范大学环境学院,吉林长春130024 [3]武警吉林省森林总队白山市支队,吉林长春130000

出　　处：《灾害学》2024年第2期42-47,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：吉林省科技发展计划项目“长白山北景区地质灾害链式效应及精细化风险预警技术研究”(212556SF010483432)。

摘　　要：为了对森林火灾的应急救援流程进行优化,以提升应急救援效率,依据森林火灾应急救援预案、有关规定与实际救援案例,从信息传递的角度对森林火灾应急救援流程进行了直观描述。基于petri网相关理论,运用PIPEv5.2.0,构建了森林火灾应急救援随机petri网模型与其同构马尔可夫链,在模型有界、活性、安全且可达的基础上,通过确定模型的库所繁忙率、变迁利用率、平均延迟时间,得到如下结果:①森林火灾应急救援活动早期的灾情信息多且复杂,随着森林火灾的发展呈现动态变化,火灾发生后如何高效地获取过火面积、火线长度、风向、风力、植被载量以及地形等关键信息是优化的重点。②避免信息堆积,基于火灾规模、强度、形式、火头方向等重要任务信息变量,实现实时快速决策、动态处置,是保证森林火灾应急救援活动的时效性的关键。In order to optimize the emergency rescue process for forest fires and improve emergency rescue efficiency,a visual description of the forest fire emergency rescue process is provided from the perspective of information transmission based on the forest fire emergency rescue plan,relevant regulations,and actual rescue cases.Based on the theory of Petri Nets,a stochastic petri net model of forest fire emergency rescue and its isomorphic Markov chain are constructed by using PIPEv5.2.0.,based on which the model is bounded,active,safe and accessible,and by determining the model's place occupancy rate,transition utilization rate and average delay time,it was found that:①The early disaster information of forest fire emergency rescue activities is abundant and complex,and it shows dynamic changes with the development of forest fires.How to efficiently obtain key information such as fired area and perimeter,wind direction,wind scale,forest fuel loads and terrain is the focus of optimization.②Avoiding information accumulation,realizing real-time rapid decision-making and dynamic disposal based on important task information variables such as fire scale,intensity,form and flame direction are the keys to ensure the timeliness of forest fire emergency rescue activities.

关 键 词：森林火灾救援 随机PETRI网模型 时效分析 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5[农业科学—森林保护学] S762[农业科学—林学]