颌骨囊性病变开窗减压时间预测列线图的建立  

Nomogram prediction of duration to decompression in cystic lesions of the jaw

作　　者：赵璐 张翠乐 陈志方[1,2,3] ZHAO Lu;ZHANG Cui-le;CHEN Zhi-fang(Hefei Clinical School of Stomatology,Anhui Medical University,Anhui Province,230001,China;The Fifth Clinical Medical College,Anhui Medical University,Anhui Province,230032,China;Western Stomatological Surgery Department of Hefei Stomatological Hospital,Anhui Province,230601,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽医科大学合肥口腔临床学院,安徽合肥230001 [2]安徽医科大学第五临床医学院,安徽合肥230032 [3]合肥市口腔医院西区口腔外科,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《中国医疗美容》2024年第3期60-63,共4页China Medical Cosmetology

摘　　要：目的探讨影响开窗减压治疗时间的因素,构建开窗减压治疗时间预测列线图,为临床治疗提供参考依据。方法回顾性分析合肥市口腔医院2018年1月1日-2022年12月31日80例行颌骨开窗减压治疗患者的临床资料,分析性别、年龄、病变部位、病理诊断对开窗减压治疗时间的影响,通过Cox回归模型分析影响开窗减压时间的因素并建立预测列线图模型。结果Cox回归分析发现年龄(P<0.05)、病理类型(P<0.05)与开窗减压时间显著相关,均是独立影响因素,基于这些因素建立开窗减压时间列线图预测模型,ROC曲线、DCA曲线、校准曲线显示模型灵敏度、区分度良好,内部交叉验证R2为0.66,说明本模型具有良好的预测效果。结论本研究构建的颌骨囊性病变开窗减压时间列线图预测模型具有良好的预测效果,有助于个体化地预测患者开窗减压时间,为临床工作提供参考。Objective To explore the factors affecting the duration of decompression treatment and construct a predictive nomogram.Methods Retrospective analysis from January 1,2018-December 31,2022 in Hefei Stomatological Hospital was done which including 80 Clinical data of patients treated by jaw decompression as research subjects.The effects of gender,age,position,and pathological diagnosis on the duration of decompression treatment were analyzed.Cox regression analysis was performed to identify the factors influencing the duration of decompression,and a predictive nomogram model was constructed.Results Cox regression analysis revealed that age(P<0.05)and pathological type(P<0.05)were significantly correlated with the duration of decompression and were identified as independent factors.Based on these findings,a nomogram prediction model was developed.ROC curve,DCA curve,calibration curve show the sensitivity and good discrimination of the model,and the internal cross-validation R2 was 0.66,it indicates that this model has good prediction effect.Conclusion The nomogram prediction model of duration to decompression in cystic lesions of the jaw constructed in this study had good predictive effect.It is helpful to predict individualized duration of decompression and provide reference for clinicians.

关 键 词：囊性病变 开窗减压 列线图 预后 COX回归模型 

分 类 号：R782[医药卫生—口腔医学]