数字农业对气候灾害脆弱性的影响研究——以中国粮食主产区为例  

Research on the impact of digital agriculture on climate hazards vulnerability——The example of China′s major grain producing regions

作　　者：张力元 黄浩 韩沅刚 董会忠[4] ZHANG Liyuan;HUANG Hao;HAN Yuangang;DONG Huizhong(School of Economics and Management,Yangtze University,Jingzhou 434023,China;School of Management,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China;Northeast Asia Research Institute,Jinlin University,Changchun 130012,China;School of Management,Shandong University of Technology,Zibo 255012,China)

机构地区：[1]长江大学经济管理与管理学院,湖北荆州434023 [2]华中科技大学管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [3]吉林大学东北亚研究院,吉林长春130012 [4]山东理工大学管理学院,山东淄博255012

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2024年第4期521-532,共12页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(编号:19BJY085);山东省自然科学基金项目(编号:ZR2012GM020)。

摘　　要：探讨数字农业与气候灾害脆弱性之间的内在关系,对农业经济防灾减灾、稳定农业发展具有重要意义。选取2010—2019年13个粮食主产区面板数据,借助纵横拉开档次法、面板灰色关联法、动态空间杜宾模型和合成控制法等方法,探究数字农业对气候灾害脆弱性的影响效应。结果表明:①数字农业发展格局由低值单极化向多极化转变,气候灾害脆弱性呈现“南高北低”分布特征,二者存在负向关联;②数字农业会显著降低本地及邻近地区气候灾害脆弱性,在改变空间权重矩阵后,该结论依旧稳健;③将“农业农村大数据试点”政策作为外生冲击检验,发现数字农业降低试点粮食主产区气候灾害脆弱性的结果依旧稳健;④数字农业信息基础是数字农业降低气候灾害脆弱性发挥的首要因素。粮食主产区应完善数字农业基础设施建设、持续提升农业数字科技水平,以助力粮食主产区应对气候变化、实现农业高质量发展。Exploring the intrinsic relationship between digital agriculture and climate hazards vulnerability is of great significance for preventing and reducing agricultural economic disasters and stabilizing agricultural development.This paper selected panel data from 13 major grain-producing regions from 2010 to 2019,and used methods such as the cross-sectional break method,gray correlation method for panel data,dynamic spatial Durbin model,and synthetic control method to explore the impact of digital agriculture on climate hazards vulnerability.The results showed that:①The development pattern of digital agriculture was changing from low-value unipolar to multipolar,and the climate hazards vulnerability showed a“south high,north low”distribution feature,which was negatively correlated with the two factors.②Digital agriculture could significantly reduce the local and adjacent areas′climate hazards vulnerability.After changing the spatial weight matrix,this conclusion remained robust.③Taking“pilot projects of agricultural and rural big data”policy as an exogenous shock test,it was found that digital agriculture could still reduce the climate hazards vulnerability of the pilot grain-producing areas.④The information foundation of digital agriculture was the primary factor for digital agriculture to reduce climate hazards vulnerability.Grain-producing areas should improve the construction of digital agricultural infrastructure,continue to improve agricultural digital technology level to help grain-producing areas respond to climate change and achieve high-quality agricultural development.

关 键 词：数字农业 气候灾害脆弱 粮食主产区 纵横拉开档次法 合成控制法 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] X45[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]