2012-2019年江苏省盐城市结直肠癌发病趋势及危险因素分析  

Analysis on trends and risk factors of colorectal cancer in Yancheng city,Jiangsu province from 2012 to 2019

作　　者：陆凤安 孟显峰[2] 吴玲玲 许晓庆[1] 刘付东[1] LU Feng-an;MENG Xian-feng;WU Ling-ling;XU Xiao-qing;LIU Fu-dong(Department of Chronic Disease Prevention,Yancheng City Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jiangsu 224002,China;Department of Chronic Disease Prevention,Weifang City Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

机构地区：[1]盐城市疾病预防控制中心慢性病防制科,江苏224002 [2]潍坊市疾病预防控制中心慢性病防制科

出　　处：《预防医学论坛》2024年第1期9-13,共5页Preventive Medicine Tribune

基　　金：江苏省盐城市医学科技发展计划项目(YK2021033)。

摘　　要：目的分析2012-2019年江苏省盐城市结直肠癌的发病变化趋势,探讨其发病危险因素,为有效开展结直肠癌的防治工作提供理论依据。方法收集2012-2019年江苏省盐城市结直肠癌发病例数,利用Joinpiont软件分析盐城市不同人群各年龄段结直肠癌发病变化趋势,利用Stata软件进行负二项回归模型分析以评价人群水平的发病危险因素。结果2012-2019年江苏省盐城市结直肠癌粗发病率为23.16/10万,标化发病率为12.76/10万。2012-2019年江苏省盐城市结直肠癌的标化发病率呈上升趋势[平均年度变化百分比(APC)=4.85%,P<0.05]。男性结直肠癌的发病率高于女性,男性标化发病率上升幅度大于女性(APC_(男)=5.74%,APC_(女)=3.68%)。城镇结直肠癌的发病率高于农村,城镇结直肠癌标化发病率维持在稳定水平,农村结直肠癌的标化发病率呈上升趋势(APC=4.90%,P<0.05)。2012-2019年江苏省盐城市不同年龄组居民的结直肠癌发病率呈现不同的趋势,其中55~64岁、65~74岁、75~84岁年龄组呈上升趋势,APC分别为7.14%(95%CI:5.66~8.64)、5.19%(95%CI:2.53~7.91)和5.60%(95%CI:2.69~8.60)。负二项回归模型分析显示,城乡(OR=3.39,95%CI:2.14~5.42,P<0.05)和年龄(OR=1.62,95%CI:1.51~1.73,P<0.05)是结直肠癌发病的独立危险因素,城镇居民结直肠癌发病风险是农村居民的3.39倍,每增加5岁,结直肠癌的发病风险增加62%。结论2012-2019年江苏省盐城市结直肠癌的发病率呈上升趋势,男性高于女性,城镇高于农村,高年龄组人群的结直肠癌发病率处于较高水平。Objective To analyze the trend of incidence of colorectal cancer in Yancheng city,and explore the risk factors of colorectal cancer,so as to provide theoretical basis for effective prevention and treatment of colorectal cancer.Methods The data of colorectal cancer cases in Yancheng city from 2012 to 2019 were collected,the trends of colorectal cancer incidence in different age groups in Yancheng city were analyzed by Joinpiont software,and the negative binomial regression model was analyzed by Stata software to evaluate the risk factors at the population level.Results From 2012 to 2019,the crude incidence of colorectal cancer in Yancheng city,Jiangsu province was 23.16/10^(5),and the standardized incidence was 12.76/10^(5).The standardized incidence of colorectal cancer in Yancheng city showed an upward trend(APC=4.85%,P<0.05).The incidence of colorectal cancer in men was higher than that in women,the increase of standardized incidence rate in male was greater than that in female(APC_(male)=5.74%,APC_(female)=3.68%).The incidence of colorectal cancer in urban area was higher than that in rural area.The standardized incidence rate of colorectal cancer in urban area remained stable,the standardized incidence of colorectal cancer in rural areas showed an increasing trend(APC=4.90%,P<0.05),while the incidence of colorectal cancer in Yancheng city from 2012 to 2019 showed different trends in different age groups,the APC was 7.14%(95%CI:5.66-8.64),5.19%(95%CI:2.53-7.91)and 5.60%(95%CI:2.69-8.60),respectively.Analysis of negative binomial regression model showed that urban and rural areas(OR=3.39,95%CI:2.14~5.42,P<0.05)and age(OR=1.62,95%CI:1.51-1.73,P<0.05)were independent risk factors for colorectal cancer.The risk of colorectal cancer in urban residents was 3.39 times higher than that in rural residents,the risk of colorectal cancer increased by 62%for every 5 years.Conclusion The incidence of colorectal cancer in Yancheng city is on the rise,higher in men than in women,and higher in urban than in rural areas.The inc

关 键 词：结直肠癌 发病率 趋势 危险因素 负二项回归 

分 类 号：R735.3[医药卫生—肿瘤] R181.32[医药卫生—临床医学]