货币流入资产领域的实证及理论研究  

Empirical and Theoretical Research on Money Inflow into the Asset

作　　者：张逸辰 韩汉君[1] ZHANG Yi-chen;HAN Han-jun(Institute of Economics,Shanghai Academy of Social Science,Shanghai 200020,China)

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院经济研究所,上海200020

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2024年第4期57-63,共7页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

摘　　要：基于中国货币供应量M2增速数据,对“中国的货币之谜”现象进行深入研究,明晰了M2增速较快却未能完全由实际产出增长和物价上涨所解释的现状。通过采用混频向量自回归方法,实证检验货币进入资产领域形成“窖藏”的过程,并将货币、房地产纳入动态一般均衡模型中,对货币流通速度下降的原因进行了系统分析。研究结果表明:货币供给增量显著带动了商品房销售,但对通胀的直接影响并不显著;家庭在货币供给增速提升时倾向于将房产作为安全资产,这一行为降低了货币需求并抑制了消费。基于研究结果提出了相应的政策建议,以期提高货币资金使用效率。Based on the data on the rapid growth of China's money supply M2,this study delves into the phenomenon known as"China's monetary puzzle",reporting the current situation where the rapid increase in M2 is not fully explained by the growth in real output and price increases.By employing a mixed-frequency vector autoregression method,empirical testing was conducted to examine the process of money entering the asset market and forming"hoarding",with both money and real estate incorporated into a dynamic general equilibrium model to systematically analyze the reasons for the decline in money velocity.The study has yielded the following findings:The increase in money supply significantly drives sales of real estate,but its direct impact on inflation is not pronounced.Households tend to invest in real estate as a safe asset when the rate of increase in money supply rises,reducing the demand for money and suppressing consumption.Based on these research outcomes,corresponding policy recommendations are proposed in this paper,aiming to enhance the efficiency of money use and the significance of research in this regard.

关 键 词：货币增量 资产领域 房地产 货币需求 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]