经济周期与企业数字化转型:基于同群效应和热手效应视角  

Business Cycle and Corporate Digital Transformation:From the Perspective of Peer Effect and Hot-hand Effect

作　　者：毕茜[1] 曲恬立 BI Qian;QU Tianli(College of Economics and Management,Southwest University,Chonqing 400715)

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《管理现代化》2024年第2期20-27,共8页Modernization of Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“资本市场开放的微观经济效应研究:基于“沪深港通”制度的经验证据”(22FGLB093)。

摘　　要：在宏观经济形势复杂多变的背景下,经济周期波动是否会对企业数字化转型产生影响具有研究意义。研究发现,企业的数字化转型呈现逆周期特征;进一步发现,企业的数字化转型存在地区同群效应和行业同群效应,且两类同群效应均会促进企业数字化转型的逆周期性;管理层对未来经济预期存在热手效应,但在此影响下企业的数字化转型仍呈现显著逆周期特征。异质性分析发现,在市场化水平高、行业竞争程度高和媒体关注度低的情况下,企业数字化转型逆周期表现更明显。Under the background of the complex and changeable external environment,it is significant to investigate whether business cycle has effect on corporate digital transformation.The research findings show that corporate digital transformation presents the counter-cyclical characteristics.Further,findings show that corporate digital transformation has both of regional and industry peer effect,and both of the regional and industry peer effect have positive effect on counter-cyclical characteristic of digital transformation;there is also a hot-hand effect on managers’expectations for the future economy,but with the influence of managers’expectation,the corporate digital transformation still presents the significant counter-cyclical characteristics.The heterogeneity tests show that the counter-cyclical characteristics of digital transformation is more substantial in the enterprises in high-level marketization regions,in low-competition industry and with high-level media attention.This paper examines the enterprises’decision-making of digital transformation from the perspective of macroeconomic fluctuations,and further based on the peer effect and the hot-hand effect explores the moderating effect of the relationship between business cycle and digital transformation,which theoretically enriches the research on the influencing factors of corporate digitalization,and realistically provides the empirical evidences for enterprises making decisions of digital transformation.

关 键 词：经济周期 企业数字化转型 同群效应 热手效应 

分 类 号：F273.1[经济管理—企业管理] F832.5[经济管理—国民经济] F124