2017—2022年东海县牛山街道疑似预防接种异常反应监测分析及预测  

Surveillance and prediction of suspected abnormal reactions to vaccination in Niushan Street,Donghai County from 2017 to 2022

作　　者：郭珍 陈莉 GUO Zhen;CHEN Li(Department of Chronic Infectious Disease Prevention and Control,the Disease Prevention and Control Center in Guangling District in Jiangsu Province Yangzhou,Yangzhou 225002,China;Department of Prevention and Health Care,Niushan Street Health Hospital,Donghai County in Jiangsu Province Lianyungang,Donghai 222300,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省扬州市广陵区疾病预防控制中心慢性传染病防制科,江苏扬州225002 [2]江苏省连云港市东海县牛山街道卫生院预防保健科,江苏东海222300

出　　处：《现代医学》2024年第3期421-426,共6页Modern Medical Journal

摘　　要：目的:分析及预测东海县牛山街道2017年至2022年疑似预防接种异常反应(AEFI)的发生情况,为疫苗的安全使用提供依据。方法:采用描述性流行病学方法对东海县牛山街道2017年至2022年AEFI资料进行统计分析。使用R 3.6.2软件,利用2017年1月至2022年4月AEFI发生例数构建季节性差分自回归移动平均模型(SARIMA),并通过2022年5~12月AEFI发生例数验证模型性能。结果:2017年至2022年牛山街道共接种各类疫苗313038剂次,其中免疫规划疫苗284815剂次,非免疫规划疫苗28223剂次。不同年份AEFI报告发生率差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=27.837,P=0.001)。AEFI有280例,其中262例为一般反应,18例为异常反应;280例未住院,均痊愈。SARIMA模型对东海县牛山街道AEFI发生例数进行了较好的拟合,最终模型参数为SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1)12,AIC值为300.39,BIC值为310.05,预测值与真实值的均方根误差(RMSE)为5.03,提示该模型预测结果可信。结论:AEFI监测数据显示目前使用的免疫规划疫苗和非免疫规划疫苗是安全的,建立的SARIMA模型可预测牛山街道AEFI的发生趋势及走向。Objective:To analyze and predict the incidence of adverse reactions following immunization(AEFI)to vaccination in Niushan Street,Donghai County from 2017 to 2022,and to provide a basis for the safe use of vaccines.Methods:Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the AEFI data of Niushan Street in Donghai County from 2017 to 2022 by R 3.6.2 software.A seasonal difference autoregressive moving average model(SARIMA)was constructed based on the number of AEFI from January 2017 to April 2022,and the performance of the model was validated through the number of AEFI from May to December 2022.Results:From 2017 to 2022,a total of 313038 doses of various vaccines were administered in Niushan Street,including 284815 doses of expanded program on immunization vaccines and 28223 doses of non-immunization expanded program vaccines.There was a statistically significant difference in the incidence rate of AEFI reports among different years(χ^(2)=27.837,P=0.001).There were 280 cases of AEFI,in which 262 cases were mild reactions,18 cases were abnormal reactions,and 280 cases were not hospitalized,all of which were cured.The SARIMA model fitted well to the number of AEFI cases in Niushan Street in Donghai County,the final model parameters were SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1)12,with AIC value of 300.39 and BIC value of 310.05,the root mean square error(RMSE)between the predicted and true values was 5.03,indicating the reliability of the model’s prediction results.Conclusion:AEFI monitoring data shows that the currently used immunization planning vaccines and non-immunization planning vaccines are safe.The SARIMA model established can predict the incidence trend and drection of AEFI in Niushan Street.

关 键 词：预防接种 描述性流行病学 监测分析 时间序列模型 

分 类 号：R186[医药卫生—流行病学]