基于多源数据的青海东部城市群气候承载力评估与时空格局分析  

Climate Carrying Capacity Assessment and Spatiotemporal Pattern Analysis ofEastern Qinghai Urban Agglomeration Based on Multi-source Data

作　　者：胡亚男 李红梅 刘彩红[4] 段丽君 金显玲 HU Yanan;LI Hongmei;LIU Caihong;DUAN Lijun;JIN Xianling(School of Politics and Public Administration,Qinghai Minzu University,Xining Qinghai 810007,P.R.China;Key Laboratory of Land Resources Survey and Planning of Qinghai Province,Xining Qinghai 810007,P.R.China;Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Eco-Environmental Research Institute,Xining Qinghai 810007,P.R.China;Qinghai Climate Center,Xining Qinghai 810007,P.R.China;Greenhouse Gas and Carbon Neutral Key Laboratory of Qinghai Province,Xining Qinghai 810007,P.R.China;China Atmospheric Background Reference Observatory,Xining Qinghai 810007,P.R.China;Experimental Station of Pastoral Meteorology,Haibei Qinghai 812200,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]青海民族大学政治与公共管理学院,青海西宁810007 [2]青海省土地资源勘测与规划重点实验室,青海西宁810007 [3]青藏高原生态环境研究所,青海西宁810007 [4]青海省气候中心,青海西宁810007 [5]青海省温室气体及碳中和重点实验室,青海西宁810007 [6]中国大气本底基准观象台,青海西宁810007 [7]青海省海北州牧业气象试验站,青海海北812200

出　　处：《西部林业科学》2024年第2期45-55,共11页Journal of West China Forestry Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U20A2081);青海省基础研究计划(2020-ZJ-711)。

摘　　要：为探索高原地区城市化与气候变化之间的相互作用机制。从气候承载力基本内涵出发,基于气候条件与人类活动相互作用关系,同时考虑气候资源和极端气候事件双重属性,本文识别并构建了包括气候天然容量、气候极端事件压力、城市气候压力以及城市协调发展能力四方面要素的气候承载力评估指标体系,以青海东部城市群为例,应用模型探讨了气候承载力的时空分布格局及变化规律。结果显示:从时间分布上来看,2001—2020年青海东部城市群气候承载力整体呈下降趋势,且因受到气候天然容量和极端气候事件压力的影响,波动幅度较大;从空间分布上来看,青海东部城市群低和较低气候承载力区主要集中于民和—乐都—西宁—湟中沿线大片区域,中气候承载力区零散分布于湟水谷地两岸区域,高承载力和较高承载力区则主要分布于该地区的西北部和东部北地区。研究结果提示本文建立的气候承载力评估指标体系对于青海东部城市群是合理可行的,可以描述城市群城市气候承载力在时空上的格局演变过程,可作为气候变化风险预警的依据。In order to explore the interaction mechanism between urbanization and climate change in the plateau region.Starting from the basic connotation of climate carrying capacity,based on the interaction between climate conditions and human activities,and considering the dual attributes of climate resources and extreme climate events,this paper identifies and constructs a climate carrying capacity assessment index system including four elements of natural climate capacity,extreme climate event pressure,urban climate pressure and urban coordinated development capacity,and takes the urban agglomeration in eastern Qinghai as an example to apply the model and discuss the pattern of temporal and spatial distribution of climate carrying capacity and the change pattern of climate carrying capacity.The model was applied to explore the temporal and spatial distribution pattern and the change rule of climate carrying capacity.The results show that from the perspective of temporal distribution,the climate carrying capacity of the eastern urban agglomeration of Qinghai shows an overall decreasing trend from 2001 to 2020,and the fluctuation amplitude is larger due to the influence of the natural capacity of the climate and the pressure of extreme climate events.From the spatial distribution point of view,the eastern urban agglomeration of qinghai low and lower climate carrying capacity area is mainly concentrated in minhe-ledu-xining-huanghuangzhong along a large area,in the climate carrying capacity area scattered distribution in huangshui valley on both sides of the region,the high carrying capacity and higher carrying capacity area is mainly distributed in the northwestern part of the region and the eastern part of the north area.The results suggest that the climate carrying capacity assessment index system established in this paper is reasonable and feasible for the eastern urban agglomeration of Qinghai,can describe the urban agglomeration of urban climate carrying capacity in the spatial and temporal pattern of the evolution

关 键 词：气候承载力 多源数据 定量评估 时空格局 

分 类 号：P463.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]